In Maharashtra, Raj could be gamechanger: CNN-IBN survey

Despite their best efforts and reasonably strong anti-incumbency, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance aren’t anywhere close to dislodging the Congress-NCP alliance in Maharashtra. But there could be a gamechanger in the wings who could swing things in their favour, and no it isn’t Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi.

Most of the 1514 respondents surveyed under the CNN-IBN and Hindu survey, felt that not much had changed during the Congress-NCP regime in the state. Whether it was corruption, the state of roads, supply of water and electricity, irrigation and the condition of farmers in the state, a majority of the respondents felt little had changed.

It perhaps indicates why if elections were to be held right now the Congress-BJP alliance would easily secure a bulk of the votes in the state. The survey pegs the Congress-NCP alliance getting 46 percent of the vote share, far ahead of the BJP-Shiv Sena combine which would be expected to get around 36 percent.

And despite the occasional war of words between the Congress and NCP, a majority of the supporters in both parties feel the alliance should be preserved.

However, the game changer, much to Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray’s chagrin, may be the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena which could garner up to five percent of the vote share and bring the alliance within striking distance of the incumbent government.

A majority of traditional MNS supporters believe that the BJP should ally with their party along with the Shiv Sena to have a better chance. And despite the recent friction between Narendra Modi and Uddhav Thackeray, traditional supporters of the BJP and Shiv Sena believe the alliance should be preserved for the next polls.

However, when it comes to fighting the Lok Sabha polls together, Shiv Sena supporters seem more inclined to fighting the elections together than MNS supporters. In the poll, 70 percent of the Shiv Sena supporters felt the two parties should fight the polls together while only 54 percent of MNS supporters felt the same.

Uddhav may have taken over the mantle of the party chief of the Shiv Sena from his father Bal Thackeray, a majority of the respondents felt Raj was the best candidate to take his uncle’s political legacy forward. In the survey a majority of the respondents, and surprisingly 57 percent of the traditional supporters of Shiv Sena, felt that Raj was better suited to take the legacy forward.

While this explains why the BJP is making overtures towards the MNS chief, it perhaps why Uddhav may not be too keen on seeing the alliance work out given the impact it could have on his own political futures.