In Fatehpur Sikri, shifting Muslim vote could mean a win for BSP

No one talks about any wave in Fatehpur Sikri. It’s only three days to go for the polls yet the sleepy tourist town remains surprisingly unruffled. The calm here stands in total contrast to the din and excitement in neighbouring constituencies Agra and Mathura, in fact, the rest of Uttar Pradesh. In Fatehpur Sikri, pre-poll campaign activity by parties is being received by villagers with a degree of indifference. The only time there is some excitement in the air is when Amar Singh, the Rashtriya Lok Dal candidate, decides to parade a few Bollywood has-beens at his rally. The RLD and Amar Singh, the upmarket face of the Samajwadi Party until not long ago and now desperately seeking political rehabilitation, are however not much of a factor in this predominantly Muslim constituency. The BJP, the BSP and the SP are the real players here. All three have been busy negotiating the maze of caste and community equations of Fatehpur in their search for votes. “Last time it was easier. A new BSP government was in place and the Assembly election rhythm got us through,” says Gaurav Kamat, a youth BSP leader in Agra. This time it might not be the case. “Though we can still count on the caste votes and a majority of Muslims who are looking beyond the SP,” he says. [caption id=“attachment_1491643” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Rashtriya Lokdal Candidate Jayant Chaudhary during Road show in Mathura. PTI[/caption] Seema Upadhyay, the party’s candidate, had two factors going for her strongly in 2009 - the Brahmin votes and the BSP ticket itself. However, this time, the Brahmin votes appear to be shifting to the BJP. “Last time there were no formidable BJP candidate and the party had no strong presence in UP barring limited pockets,” explains a journalist based in Agra. According to insiders, a few BSP leaders have a falling out with party leader Mukul Upadhyay, Seema’s father-in-law, in recent times. “There are a few elements in the party who are now trying to give traction to the SP,” alleged a close associate of Upadhyay on condition of anonymity. However, so far as the voters of this constituency are concerned, the BSP still has an upper hand over the two immediate contenders. Choudhry Babu Lal, a Jat candidate from the BJP, stands little chance of winning his caste votes as the Jats in the region might stay with RLD. The job reservation for the caste announced recently has won the party some goodwill points. On the other hand, the SP is a divided camp after the initial candidate Rajendra Singh was replaced with Pakshalika Singh, a royal family member. “Seema Upadhyay is a face that we know and since she is a BSP candidate, our allegiance is obviously pledged to her,” says Banke Ram, a villager in Sirouli, few kilometres from the Rajasthan border. In the rural areas of Fatehpur Sikri, the population is mostly Dalit and other Schedule Castes. The party is leaving nothing to chance even though it is assured of its Dalit vote bank. “Even though we are reaching out to all voters, regardless of caste and community, we don’t forget that our core voters are the Dalits,” says Seema Upadhyay addressing a crowd in one of the villages. Most villages here bear the BSP flag. There are around two lakh Dalit voters in Fatehpur Sikri. “This is our core vote bank and come what may this is not going to ditch us. Now the only concern is to bring the Muslim voters into confidence,” says one of the campaign associates of Upadhyay. In the previous election, the majority of the Muslim votes remained with the SP but this time, the associate explains, the cadres are reaching out to every household explaining the cause of the Muzaffarnagar riots and how the Samajwadi Party was single-handedly responsible for it. Even Mayawati’s recent rally in Agra Rural solely focused on the SP’s role in the riots in Muzaffarnagar and Shamli. If the resentment among people is to be read here, one thing comes across clearly. Regardless of caste and community, the people of Fatehpur Sikri have developed a strong antipathy towards the SP, which holds most of the Assembly constituencies. “We voted them to power because they had promised a lot. Two years down the line they have simply failed us,” says Bashir Khan, in Daudpur, a village near the Rajasthan border. “Look at that road,” he points to a state highway of Rajasthan that transforms into a terrain resembling the surface of moon as it crosses into UP. “They have failed to save our dwindling profession,” says Bashir, a weaver by profession. This part of UP is home to a large number of weavers who are predominantly Muslim and the entire community seems to have been alienated by the SP government. With the Muslim disenchantment with the SP so clear, it is possible that a majority of the almost two lakh community votes will shift to the BSP. They also see the BSP as a strong bulwark against the BJP.