Hubris of AAP? Poll tracker shows BJP pulling ahead in Delhi

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) may be making big noises about going national, taking on bigwigs like Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi head on in their constituencies, but they would do well to take a step back and look to where it all began for them. Their Delhi vote bank seems to be slipping away from them.

The latest numbers from the Lokniti, CSDS-IBN National Tracker Poll conducted in Delhi in March don’t spell very good news for Arvind Kejriwal and Co. The party, which was projected to win 35 percent of the Lok Sbaha vote share in February, is now down to 29 percent. This is in contrast to the BJP, which has seen its estimated voteshare rise from 36 percent in February to a stronger 40 percent in March. The Congress has held steady at 22 percent. If it strengthens any further, AAP could face more problems.

And while AAP is still ahead in the race for the state assembly election - which could be held after the Lok Sabha results, the bad news is that the BJP is catching up here too - and quickly. Forty two percent of those polled in March said that they would vote for AAP if elections were held ’tomorrow’, as opposed to 46 percent in February. The BJP, on the other hand, has seen this number climb from 30 percent to 36 percent.

So what’s going wrong for the fledgling party?

One: AAP’s decision to resign after a tumultuous 49 days in power has hurt the party, regardless of how much Kejriwal tries to valorise his actions. When he announced his decision to resign, leaving the Delhi assembly in a state of suspended animation, his speech was full of metaphors glorifying martyrdom and sacrifice.

“A hundred chief ministerial chairs can be sacrificed for the Jan Lokpal Bill - we are ready. If we need to lay down our lives for the country, I will consider myself lucky”, he said.

“I pray to God that we are small people, please be kind to us, give us good sense. Give us the ability to sacrifice our lives for this country”.

In subsequent speeches on the campaign trail, he has kept up this vein of language, rejecting snide opposition barbs that he has ‘run away’ from the job. “Lord Ramachandra was lucky the BJP was not there when he went into exile,” he said in one speech in Delhi. “Otherwise they would call him a runaway too. “ At another point, he said, “I am not running away to Pakistan” - an obvious reference to Narendra Modi’s innuendo suggesting he was a Pakistani agent.

But it seems that not everyone is buying into this rhetoric. As many as 47 percent of those polled felt that he did the wrong thing by resigning in February. Only 34 percent felt he had acted correctly in doing so, with 19 percent of the people saying they couldn’t say whether the decision had been a good one or not. This is not good news for Kejriwal and the party. It looks like the biggest ‘sacrifice’ they have made in deciding to resign is their chances in the Lok Sabha polls.

Second: AAP’s traditional support bases are moving away from it.

The youth and the middle class voter, both of whom were instrumental in bringing the Aam Aadmi Party to power in Delhi, are looking elsewhere. Thirty-five percent of the youth category between 18-25 years is voting for the BJP, while 33 percent have said that they will vote for AAP. This difference is more stark in the 26-35 age group. The BJP is well ahead here, with 39 percent of those polled saying that they would vote for the BJP as opposed to 31 percent for AAP.

This figure, which also includes the middle class voter, could be moving away from AAP for two reasons. Firstly, the BJP and the Modi wave have captured the imagination of youth more than the opposition would care to admit, and secondly, Kejriwal’s time in power, marked by dharnas and midnight raids, has disillusioned some of the people who came out and voted for him.

Furthermore as pointed out in this article , it could also well be that the Delhi voter feels abandoned by Kejriwal, who is leaving his voters behind with the intention of fighting Modi in Varanasi.

The other story in the numbers lies in the results of the Muslim and Dalit population surveyed in the poll, and the fact that they are benefitting the BJP.

The Muslim vote seems patently anti-BJP. As many as 93 percent of those surveyed will not vote for the BJP, but this vote is being split between the Congress and AAP. Thirty seven percent of Muslims polled said that they would vote for AAP while the Congress is set to receive 56 percent of the Muslim vote. This split of course, means that the BJP will benefit in a first-past-the-post system.

In terms of Dalit voteshare, the BJP seems to making big gains. Thirty three percent of Dalits surveyed have said that they will vote for the BJP as against 28 percent for AAP and 19 percent for the Congress. This could be an indication that Modi’s decision to play the OBC card and highlight his ‘chaiwallah’ background are working in terms of getting the BJP the lower class vote.

Overall, the story in Delhi is advantage BJP. The Aam Aadmi Party may be disappointed unless Kejriwal manages to pull off a miracle over the next one week. Delhi goes to the polls on 10 April.