How Modi's rise is redrawing the political map

The countdown to Election 2014 hasn’t yet begun, but already we are seeing frenetic signs of an attempt at redrawing the political map of India. It’s true, of course, that the churn of politics is a ceaseless and ongoing affair, and parties and configurations are always looking to enhance their political leverage. But in recent times, the political turbines have begun spinning on overdrive in response to the proximity of the elections - and the gradually emerging clarity about the contours of the contest. The elevation of Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi has contributed more than most factors to this clarity. Even within the BJP, Modi’s rise compelled fence-sitters and his detractors to reveal their hand, as evidenced by party patriarch LK Advani’s resignation drama earlier this week. Although Advani was eventually persuaded not to press his resignation, the development had the effect of compelling the BJP to reflect on its decision to make Modi the party’s election campaign chairman. The end-result of that process - a more forceful reiteration of the wisdom of Modi’s elevation - has helped end the ambiguity that existed in some of the leaders’ minds. [caption id=“attachment_851873” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Modi’s elevation within the BJP has sent political furs flying.[/caption] A similar clarity seems to be dawning on the minds of Janata Dal (United) leaders, who are caught between a rock and a hard place in Bihar. For all the BJP leaders’ television talk-show smooth-talk about the enduring nature of the NDA alliance in Bihar, an ultimatum has been pretty much served on the JD(U): accept the party’s choice of Modi as its mascot, or feel free to part ways. BJP general secretary Amit Shah, who will oversee the party organisation in the electorally decisive state of Uttar Pradesh, put it bluntly on Thursday, when he said there was no question of rethinking the decision to nominate Modi, and that the party felt no need for counsel from anyone on this matter. The biting remark is almost certainly directed at JD(U) leaders’ public articulation of disquiet over the nomination of Modi, and seeing that it comes from one of Modi’s key aides, it is not without significance. On Thursday, JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar advanced his case for the formation of a “third front” or a “federal front”, noting that while the proposal had not taken concrete shape,  it could emerge as a possibility of some of the possible constituents gave united voice on a common cause.   He had, he said, spoken to Chief Ministers Naveen Patnaik and Mamata Banerjee on the phone and explored the idea of forming such a front. For Nitish Kumar, it isn’t an easy decision to make:  as the recent byelection result in his State revealed, walking away from the NDA puts him in something of a political wilderness, and yields the advantage to his rival, the crafty Lalu Prasad Yadav. The Congress appears to have calculated that any dismemberment of the NDA alliance - owing to Modi’s projection - will work to its own advantage. Petroleum Minister M Veerappa Moily said as much on Thursday, noting that Modi’s elevation in the BJP was a blessing in disguise for the Congress - since it would bring “secular forces” together. But in equal measure the Congress is extremely wary of the emergence of a Federal Front (as opposed to a Third Front). According to a report in The Telegraph, the Congress calculates that since most of the leaders who are seen as Federal Front constituents -from Nitish Kumar to Naveen Patnaik to Jayalalithaa to N Chandrababu Naidu to Om Prakash Chautala to Prafulla Kumar Mahanta - were NDA allies in the past, they could realign themselves alongside the BJP after the elections, if the arithmetic goes in favour of the BJP. The report quoted a Congress leader as saying that “all these former BJP allies may join hands to fight the election as a front and then bargain with the NDA after the elections. This way, they will be able to keep their Muslim votes intact.” The BJP is playing on the Congress’ apprehensions on this count by projecting the Federal Front as a “natural ally of the BJP”. Party spokesperson Nirmala Sitharaman noted that the NDA - a coalition of 23 parties - gave regional parties no reason to worry, whereas under the UPA, the overall treatment of non-Congress States had been “step-motherly”. All these are of course early days, but Modi’s elevation and the proximity of elections have galvanised political parties to reflect on where they stand in the political spectrum and how best they can leverage their political clout.