Headache for Amma: As DA case starts moving again, Jaya's political future grows uncertain

The Karnataka government’s decision on Monday to file an appeal against the acquittal of J Jayalalithaa in the disproportionate assets case many not have surprised the AIADMK supremo, but it will certainly bring back the uncertainty over her political future. A trial court in Bangalore had found her guilty in September last year which had led to a short period of imprisonment, disqualification as the Chief Minister, and her disappearance from active public life for nearly eight months. However, on 11 May, the Karnataka High Court acquitted her of all the charges and she returned to the office of the chief minister 12 days later. [caption id=“attachment_2274924” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] More trouble seems to be waiting for AIADMK supremo J Jayalalithaa. AFP[/caption] The Congress and the Karnataka government were apparently in two minds whether to contest the High Court order or not. While the special public prosecutor in the case, BV Acharya, who was re-inducted at the last minute, wanted the government to go on appeal, the legal cell of the Congress unit in the state opposed his suggestion. Apparently, the government too thought itself as a non-stakeholder and didn’t want to earn the wrath of Jayalalithaa and her party. Although none reported political reasons behind the Karnataka government’s dilly dallying, it was obvious that the state Congress unit was soft on Jayalalithaa. However, what seems to have prevailed over the initial reluctance of the Karnataka government is the all-round opposition from the Congress and other parties in Tamil Nadu, and jurists across the country. They all thought that the case was fit enough for appeal because the High Court verdict allegedly based itself on wrong financial figures. It has been pointed out that the numbers and the reason for her acquittal do not match. In his order, the High Court judge had said that her unaccounted part was less than 10 percent of the total income, which according to a Supreme Court order, was permissible. Opposition parties such as the DMK and the PMK immediately found gaping errors in the arithmetic that fixed the disproportionate income at less than 10 percent. Once corrected, her unaccounted income would exceed the 10 percent limit by a mile, they pointed out. Acharya, as well as Subramanian Swamy, the original complainant in the case, also advanced the same argument and wanted an appeal against the verdict. According to some reports, what seem to have prompted the Karnataka government’s decision, after the initial reluctance, are the signals from the Congress high command. Some reports said that Sonia Gandhi favoured an appeal. Former finance minister and Congress leader P Chidamabaram also openly supported the demand. He said that he thought Acharya was right in his opinion. Besides Acharya, the Advocate General of Karnataka also gave a strong written opinion suggesting an appeal. Now that this 18-year-old case will move again against Jayalalithaa, it won’t be an easy ride for her. Buoyed by the acquittal, she was back in the office and was moving fast with a number of welfare and development projects ahead of the by-election she is planning to contest. The appeal, which will still take a few days, will not affect her re-election and stint in the office till it’s finally disposed off because the Supreme Court is unlikely to stay the HC verdict. If the final verdict goes against her, the opposition, which is literally out of steam, will have some ammunition in the assembly elections next year. At least some of the party top brass wouldn’t have expected the case to take such a turn because there were reports that Justice CR Kumaraswamy, who heard her case at the Karnataka HC, would issue a correction of the figures and leave it at that. Such a move, Jaya supporters thought, could weaken the premise of the appeal against the verdict and favour her chances because there were other points, and not just the numbers, in the order that supported her innocence. However, such a correction also would have resulted in a judgement that was inherently flawed because its operative portion heavily relied on them. Correcting the figures without appropriately revising the judgement that was based on the wrong figures would’t have been sustainable. Since the HC couldn’t revise its own judgement, there was no possibility of correcting the figures alone. Jayalalithaa and the AIADMK wouldn’t have certainly expected the case to die because the DMK had heavily invested in it and thought of it as a potent weapon against her. Both Karunanidhi and Subramanian Swamy had made it clear that they would go to Supreme Court if the Karnataka government didn’t. The DMK can stake its locus standi in the case because the SC itself has supported it twice and Subramanian Swamy has a right to appeal as the original complainant. Now that the Karnataka government has taken the crucial decision, the DMK and opposition will work overtime to win the propaganda battle. The choice before Jayalalithaa and the AIADMK is to utilise their limited time in office. In the coming months, Tamil Nadu can expect more pro-poor welfare measures, fair-price initiatives, market interventions and big bang development announcements to win voters’ attention. While the DMK will work overtime to establish that Jayalalithaa was corrupt, possible adverse verdicts on the 2G scam will take the wind out of its sail. The entire opposition will try to be united against Jayalalithaa, but BJP hasn’t been unequivocal. The party’s central leadership seems to have been sufficiently humoured, but its state president has been kept out. The BJP also hasn’t made any official statement against the verdict even after the opposition pointed out the alleged errors, hinting at the possibility of an alliance in the next general elections. Meanwhile, Jayalalithaa is getting ready for an unopposed re-election in Chennai’s RK Nagar constituency with the opposition parties deciding not to field any candidate.