Haryana: Here's why BJP is confident about sweeping Assembly polls

By K Yatish Rajawa Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s public address at Kaithal recently to inaugurate the Kaithal-Rajasthan border section of the National Highway has surged the confidence of all BJP cadres in the poll-bound state of Haryana. Much before the inauguration it was billed as a rally to kick off the campaign for Haryana state elections. The Election Commission has not yet announced the date for the polls and the ruling party is taking maximum advantage of it to announce sops for the state. Minister for Surface Transportation and Shipping Nitin Gadkari, who attended the rally along with the prime minister, grabbed the opportunity and announced eight highway projects for the state. The Kaithal meet was interesting from another perspective too as the front of the stage had a list of projects announced, planned and completed by the Central government. It was almost as if the Ministry for Surface Transportation and Shipping was showcasing its report card. [caption id=“attachment_1678541” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Prime Minister Narendra Modi. PTI[/caption] While Modi in his usual oratory style wooed the crowd, the meeting did not go well for state Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, who was hooted by the crowd. Hooda got so angry that now he has promised not to share the dais with the prime minister in future. Hooda’s promise may be easily realized as the elections are likely to be called very soon and there is already a huge anti-incumbency wave against him. Every BJP worker in the state is over confident about the party’s victory in the state. The confidence is also high among the team members that Amit Shah has put together for selecting candidates. BJP is so confident that it has decided that there will be no pre-poll alliance with Kuldeep Bishnoi’s Haryana Janhit Congress (HJC). The reason cited is that HJC has not delivered in Lok Sabha elections, with even Kuldeep Bishnoi losing. It remains to be seen whether the HJC will now seek alliance or partnership with other parties. After all, Kuldeep Bishnoi is the son of Bhajan Lal, a former CM of Haryana, who was known for his capacity to switch parties. More than HJC, it is Chautala clan’s Indian National Lok Dal that is the real challenge to BJP. Its leaders’ Om Prakash Chautala and his son Abhay Chautala were in jail under a teacher recruitment scam and have recently got bail on health grounds. Their recent bail extension is till 21 August 2014. INLD does not lack leaders Dushyant Chautala, grandson of Om Prakash Chautala, has already taken charge of the election campaign. Dushyant announced the first list of 62 candidates for the state elections on 2 August 2014. A second list of candidates covering the remaining 28 seats is expected to be announced very soon. While, the over-confident BJP is yet to announce candidates and has decided not to announce the chief minister candidate for the state. The rationale given by the BJP officials is that there are too many people vying for the chief minister’s position and any announcement will only split votes. Some of the former Congress leader like Rao Inderjit Singh, a BJP MP from Gurgaon, joined BJP just before the Lok Sabha elections. Ch. Birendra Singh another senior Congress and a former finance minister of Haryana joined the party a few days back. They are both vying for the CM’s post. Besides, Rao Inderjit Singh and Chaudhury Birendra Singh there are others like Ram Vilas Sharma, currently President of Haryana BJP who is vying for the CM post. Rao Inderjit is an ahir, Birendra Singh belongs to a prominent Jat family, two castes that dominate the population and politics in Haryana. In the last few decades, Jats have cornered the chief minister’s position in Haryana, only Bhajan Lal, a Bishnoi could break the Jat grip in ‘79-85 and again in ‘91-96. The last time an Ahir was sworn in as a chief minister was in 1967, when Rao Birendra Singh, father of Rao Inderjit Singh became the chief minister for nine months as head of Vishal Haryana Party. One of the reason that BJP has not declared a chief minister candidate is also because it does not have a very strong Jat leader. A leader who could make Jat Maha panchayat endorse the party. Captain Abhimanyu Singh, a Jat leader and a rising star in BJP has not been projected as a chief minister candidate till date. Moreover, it seems that BJP is going by the demographic it knows that though the Jats occupy center stage there vote will be split because of the presence of INLD Jat candidates. Haryana is also witnessing rapid urbanization with 13 districts of the state now within the National Capital Region (NCR). The challenge is that the Jat versus non-Jat debate in Haryana politics refuses to die. Estimates vary but Jats comprise 23 percent to 27 percent of the population of the state. Though, dominance is changing in the cities in NCR area which see migration from other states. The crucial question at this stage is that will BJP’s overconfidence benefit INLD. The head start that INLD has got will it translate into votes or will Modi magic sweep Haryana for BJP.