The exit polls for the Maharashtra and Haryana Assembly elections were way off the mark in predicting the poll outcome. Not only did they fail to gauge the fight put up by Congress in Haryana and Congress and NCP in Maharashtra, but they also failed to predict the impact of Independent candidates and other parties in the two states.
Exit polls had predicted that the BJP (and its ally Shiv Sena in Maharashtra) would be miles ahead of their rivals, but they were wrong.
The biggest shocker is in Haryana, where at least three exit polls predicted decimation of the Opposition, when, in fact, the BJP won 40 seats in the 90-member assembly and the Congress bagged 31 seats.
The ABP-C Voter had predicted 68-76 seats for the BJP and 3-12 seats for the Congress, while the News18-IPSOS and Times Now forecast 75 and 69-73 for the BJP and 10 and 9-13 for the Congress, respectively.
The India Today-Axis My India, which released its predictions a day later on 22 October, was the only pollster whose predictions for BJP and Congress in Haryana were similar to the election result declared on Thursday. But there too, the pollster was way off the mark in predicting the role of other parties, including Independents.
It had predicted a tough contest between the Congress and the BJP. It said the BJP will win 32-44 seats in Haryana, while the Congress will bag 30-42 seats and 6-10 seats for the Dushyant Chautala-led Jannayaka Janta Party (JPP).
Haryana Exit polls as compared to Actual results
|Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat||52-63||19-15||19-12|
|India Today-Axis My Poll (released on Oct 22)||32-44||30-42||6-10|
The India Today-Axis My Poll forecast about the actual results in Maharashtra was also close to the actual results. It was the only pollster to not predict a saffron sweep. Most pollsters had said that the saffron alliance (Mahayuti) will get over 200 seats, but they were wrong.
In Maharashtra, the India Today-Axis poll predicted 166-194 seats for the BJP-Shiv Sena, 72-90 for the Congress-NCP and 22-34 for other smaller parties and Independents. The India Today-Axis My India was the only pollster which seemed to have gauged the voters' mood towards smaller parties and Independent candidates correctly.
Maharashtra Exit polls as compared to Actual results
India Today-Axis My Poll
NDTV Poll of polls
|ABP News Exit Poll||204||69||
|Republic-Jan Ki Baat||230-216||59-50||
|Times Now Exit Poll||230||48||
The ABP-C Voter had a made a forecast of 210 seats for the BJP and 63 seats for the Congress-NCP alliance, while Times Now gave 230 and eight for 48 for the BJP-Sena and the Congress-NCP combine.
In Maharashtra, the BJP-Shiv Sena combine is set to bag 16 seats (including leads in two) and the Congress-NCP alliance 105 seats (including leads in two).
With inputs from PTI
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Updated Date: Oct 25, 2019 00:22:04 IST