Gujarat Assembly Elections 2017: Why Patidars really matter to the outcome of the upcoming polls

The first sign that you are in a Patel citadel of south Gujarat appears when security personnel screening the crowd outside the venue of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s rally issue an unusual firman: “Go and change your shirt. You can’t go inside unless you do that.”

“What is wrong with the shirt?” I ask, bemused by the diktat.

After a five-hour drive on a bustling highway from Ahmedabad, I have reached Navsari, around 40 kilometres south of Surat, just in the nick of time to listen to the prime minister. In the background, his choppers roar, shattering the evening calm of a November evening. On the ground, where a steady stream of people is fast filling up the back rows, there is a sudden burst of excitement because of Narendra Modi’s imminent arrival after a delay of 90 minutes. On the stage, a central minister clears his throat and fiddles with the mic as every neck in front of him turns upwards. The action is about to begin. But I can’t get a piece of it.

“Nobody is allowed to go inside in a black shirt,” the man guarding the entrance says curtly and asks me to step aside.

Black, I learn later, is out because Patidars are in. The BJP is taking all precautions to avoid any form of protests using the colour black.

Around the time Modi’s choppers are circling the Navsari sky, Hardik Patel is railing against the prime minister and BJP chief Amit Shah. “Do not be scared of them. Stand up, face them. You can defeat them,” he is telling a big rally in Rajkot.

As he raises his defiant voice, shouts of “Jai Sardar, Jai Patidar” reach a crescendo. In the front rows, hundreds of youth clench their fists and exhort Hardik to battle on.

At his rally even black shirts are allowed.

The contrasting dress codes at the two venues tell us just one story: The BJP is constantly watching its back because of the Patidars. It is concerned that their anger may create problems.

Such is its distrust of the Patidars, believed to be around 15 percent of the Gujarat electorate, that past week Union minister Purshottam Rupala addressed a public meeting in Surat only in the company of a large contingent of policemen. Rupala was the first BJP leader to make a public appearance since a felicitation programme attended by Amit Shah was disrupted by Patidars near Surat in 2016.

To the outsider, the election may appear to be a direct fight between the Congress and the BJP. From a distance, it may seem that the real issues in this election are Goods and Services Tax (GST), demonetisation and the state of the economy. But a deep dive into Saurashtra and south Gujarat shows the real battle this year is between the BJP and the Patidars.

“Forget that the Congress is fighting the election. The contest is between the BJP and Patidars. Our people will build up the momentum, our people will pump in the resources, our people will manage the booths on the polling day,” says a senior member of the Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS).

At election rallies, Hardik calls it a do-or-die battle. “It is a question of Patidar pride. If the BJP wins, it would be a bitter defeat of the Patidars. If that happens, our existence would be threatened,” he says during his road shows and meetings in and around Rajkot, the heart of Saurashtra.

The BJP is wary of the Patidars because they can indeed tilt the balance. In Saurashtra’s 48 constituencies, Patidars hold the key to the outcome. In every election since 1995, at least two-third Patidars voted for the BJP, giving it a large number of seats in the region that stretches over 11 districts.

This year, there is strong evidence that Patidars are slipping away from the BJP. A Lokniti-CSDS survey between 26 October and November found that both the Congress and the BJP could be neck and neck in Saurashtra with a vote share of 42 percent. The survey also indicated that Patidars were moving towards the Congress in large numbers.

For the BJP, even a small swing away from it can cause a lot of electoral damage in the marginal seats. Of the 89 seats going to polls in the first round, it had won 14 with a margin less than 10,000 votes. (It won 5 with a margin of less than 5,000.)

That is why during his rallies in south Gujarat and Saurashtra, Modi has spent more time attacking the Congress and wooing the Patidars instead of talking about his government’s achievements. There is also an attempt to bring the Patidars back to the fold with constant attempts to make religion the focus of the election instead of caste identities. This is a clear attempt to dissuade people from voting for the Congress or getting influenced by Hardik’s appeal. Interestingly, in this war cry against the Congress, the BJP has completely abandoned its development plank. The focus now is completely on reminding voters of the “bure din” under the Congress.

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