Gujarat 2012: Why Congress will be happy to settle for second place

That the Congress will lose in Gujarat isn’t in doubt, almost every poll has predicted it and even the shadow of the 2002 riots isn't enough for voters to keep away from Narendra Modi. So despite looking down the barrel when it comes to the state elections, why are the Congress’ leaders gunning for the second spot in the state? In an editorial in the Indian Express today, political scientist Suhas Palshikar says that for the Congress the upcoming state polls will a be a key test for the party to hold on to its rank and file for future polls, particularly the national ones that are likely to be held in 2014. Pointing out that the state polls will be a test for the Congress to ensure it doesn’t lose its grip over the state like in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, Palshikar says:

Apart from its psychological import, given the proximity to the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, this is life-and-death for the state unit of the Congress. How can it convince its rank-and-file to remain with it for another five years in the wilderness if there are no signs of recovery?

[caption id=“attachment_515086” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Shall we settle for second spot? PTI[/caption] The party presently has 55 MLAs in the state assembly and has been going all out to increase the number of the seats in the state. However, with Modi and the BJP keen on increasing their tally in the state, the Congress will be perhaps be equally keen on holding their current tally and stemming the Gujarat Chief Minister’s rise. However, the Congress presently has 11 MPs in the Lok Sabha from Gujarat, which seems a large number when compared to two seats from Bihar, a state that was once considered the party’s stronghold but has been steadily eroded by regional parties. And if the BJP is able to run through the Congress in the state polls, it may see a similar erosion in Gujarat as well in the next elections. Palshikar though offers a ray of hope for the Congress and says they have some hope when it comes to the state, since the state has been firmly stuck to voting for either the Congress or the BJP when it comes to elections. With Keshubhai Patel also jumping into the fray and assuring the Congress of eating into the BJP’s voteshare, the grand old party will be hoping for an election in which it will remain a firm second best. However, the worst case scenario for the party will be if Keshubhai manages to eat into the Congress’ tally in the state, possibly killing it off for the next elections. Read Suhas Palshikar’s complete analysis of the Gujarat and Himachal elections here.