GST, Land Bills: Window for Modi narrows as Cong gains from delay by committee

The government’s decision to send two of its most important bills - the Goods and Services Tax (GST) Bill and the Land Acquisition Bill (LAB) - to parliamentary committees is a compromise it could not have avoided. While the GST constitution amendment bill, already passed by the Lok Sabha, will be vetted by a Rajya Sabha committee, LAB will go to a joint parliamentary panel where NDA nominees will dominate. The compromise was, in a sense, a cave-in to the Congress party’s deliberate attempts to disrupt the house – using pretexts like the CAG report on Nitin Gadkari or the Amethi food park. So delays by committee are a certainty. However, as long as the bills are not held hostage beyond the first half of the monsoon session that begins in July, not much would have been lost. This is a timetable the government’s parliamentary managers must insist on while agreeing to delays by committee. The Congress strategy in parliament is driven by several political objectives. Dely is critical to its scheme of things. First, it does not want to be seen as wantonly disruptive. This is why despite yesterday’s disruptions, it still allowed the India-Bangladesh Land Boundary Agreement to be passed a second time - the first passing being blighted by silly drafting errors in this constitutional amendment bill. However, the Congress also does not want the government to take credit for making the 16th Lok Sabha the most productive one in recent memory, with many key economic legislations being passed. Hence the attempt to raise small objections over the GST Bill, which has the substantial support of most states. A compromise in the GST bill is always possible, for the bill in its current form is hardly the best possible. If the Congress makes good suggestions, that would be fine. The government has to ensure that the bill does not get worse. [caption id=“attachment_2233326” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Reuters[/caption] Second, delay helps the Congress more than the BJP, even though, in theory, passing a bill now or in July or December should make no material difference. This is what the Congress is calculating. If it can kick up a fuss over the Land Acquisition Bill and smother it till the end of the monsoon session in August, it can hope to make it a live issue before the Bihar assembly elections due in October-November this year. The Congress-JDU-RJD combine will then go to town claiming the BJP is anti-farmer. Passing the bill earlier will give the government time to explain its own claims on the bill for longer. The GST bill need not be an election issue in Bihar, but if Tamil Nadu goes to the polls along with Bihar – which political observers consider a fair possibility after J Jayalalithaa’s acquittal in the disproportionate assets case yesterday (11 May) – then that too could become a poll issue. Among states, Tamil Nadu is most unhappy with the GST Bill, and a delay beyond the first half of the monsoon session could mean the bill could get needlessly postponed – maybe even till the winter session. It could become a live political hot potato in the Tamil Nadu elections. The Congress will be hoping that if it gets enough state-level doubters to wonder if they should sign up to GST, the bill could end in the dustbin once again. The Congress hopes that delay will turn the political tide in its favour, making it more difficult for the government to pass bills that are vital for restoring growth and jobs. Nothing suits the Sonia-Rahul party more than to see the government struggle with low growth for one or two more years. After that, it is election season all over. Third, the Congress needs time to rebuild its opposition alliance – an alliance which was broken by the NDA during the first part of the budget session when crucial parties like Trinamool, BJD and others broke ranks to pass bills on insurance, coal, and minerals. The sharp divergence of interests between states was something the Congress was unable to anticipate before the budget session, allowing the Modi government to isolate it for a while. Moreover, the Congress was in defensive mode, thanks to the disappearance of Rahul Gandhi. Now, he’s back, in a different avatar, and gunning for the government at every opportunity. This has clearly rejuvenated the party in parliament, as the NDA has realised to its cost. Fourth, it is the land bill that is key to building an all-pervasive anti-BJP front. Even though no CM in any state wants the UPA version of LAB, none of them has the courage to say so for fear of being branded anti-farmer. The NDA, too, has been unable to change the narrative on LAB, given its poor defence of it. This is because LAB is really pro-landed interests (not pro-poor or pro-small farmer). Most political parties represent big landlords even while using the shoulders of small farmers to fire from. Modi thus has a tough task of getting enough support from allies and opposition in case he has to go for a joint session of parliament over LAB – assuming the opposition-dominated Rajya Sabha either derails the bill or votes against it. Once bills are delayed and pushed towards the end of the year, politics will take over. If Tamil Nadu does not bring forward its assembly election, next May we will have the West Bengal elections to contend with as well. Political oneupmanship will drive all parties, from Congress to the Left Front to the Trinamool, towards pro-poor, anti-rich rhetoric. Certainly not the climate in which any difficult bill will be passed. The Modi government has done well to not stand on prestige and agree to vetting by committees in order to get the bills passed in July. If it misses the bus in July, it will find the going tougher after that. The window of opportunity is small.