Forget Delhi, get ready for mission Bihar: Why mess created by JD(U) could help BJP

Trying to overcome the disappointment that has crept into the party after most exit polls gave a thumbs up to the Aam Aadmi Party in the just-concluded Delhi Assembly Election, the BJP has quietly set its eyes on the next political battlefield — Bihar. The ongoing fluid political situation in the state has only hastened the process to get battle ready. Bihar will be real test for the party as the Delhi polls has, in all likelihood, somewhat shaken the winning combination of party president Amit Shah and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Keeping this in mind, Shah has already sent out a message to the party to focus on Bihar instead of lamenting over Delhi. [caption id=“attachment_2075709” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] BJP chief Amit Shah. PTI[/caption] The situation in Bihar is at tenterhooks as Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi was dramatically expelled from JD(U) on Monday. Nitish Kumar, meanwhile, met with Governor Keshari Nath Tripathi to stake claim to form the government claiming the incumbent does not have the requisite numbers with him. In the 243-member state Assembly, Janata Dal(United) has 115 seats, BJP 91, Rashtriya Janata Dal 22, Lok Janshakti Party three, Congress four, CPI one, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha one while the Independents represent six constituencies. Today’s development came days after Manjhi refused to quit and dug in his heels. “Manjhi is encouraging and trying for horse trading,” Nitish Kumar told the media outside Raj Bhavan in Patna after he, along with party chief Sharad Yadav and Rashtriya Janata Dal chief Lalu Prasad, met the governor. Nitish along with 130 legislators belonging to his Janata Dal(United), the RJD, the Congress and the Communist Party of India, had marched to Raj Bhavan. Manjhi was hand-picked by Nitish as his replacement when he quit last year following JD(U)’s rout in the Lok Sabha polls. Given the internal turmoil that the JD(U) is facing, the BJP is hoping to make deep inroads into the party’s bastion. The BJP chief has made it clear that the party cannot afford to waste the opportunity in Bihar because of probable poor results in Delhi. “For the past one year, Shah had been working on the caste combinations in the state, trying to woo the formidable EBC vote bank, and trying to ensure that a grand Janata alliance of Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) and Lalu Prasad’s RJD does not materialise."— said a report in The Economic Times . If the exit polls predictions come true, the party cadre will definitely be demoralised but thanks to the chaos created by the JD(U) the possibility of BJP winning the Bihar Assembly election is high. Bihar polls most likely will be held later this year. In a previous piece, Firstpost elucidated how the rebellion in the JD(U) will benefit the BJP and harm Manjhi and Nitish. “Nitish appears to be on legally strong ground in the current stand-off over the top job in the state and unless the Governor decides to dissolve the House respecting Manjhi’s recommendation he may soon take charge of the government. However, the repercussion of Manjhi’s rebellion goes much deeper than the immediate crisis. It brings to halt the efforts of the JD(U) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal, led by Lalu Yadav, to form a secular front against the BJP with the Dalit community forming its bedrock. “Manjhi has landed both the leaders struggling for political survival in a lose-lose situation. With his exit from the party, the latter stand to lose the support of the Dalits. They form around 22 percent of the state’s population and Nitish had handed over power to Manjhi, a leader from the unprivileged Mushar caste, to build a strong support base in this section. His bid to throw Manjhi out of his post with the support of Lalu has offended the community - there are protests on the streets already. Observers say the Nitish-Lalu plan to check the split in anti-BJP votes is in tatters now."— the Firstpost piece said . The article quoted political expert Sachindra Narayan who felt that the Nitish-Lalu combination will face a major blow after the exit of Dalits and will make the duo largely dependent on Muslim-Yadav-Kurmi caste. “Upper castes left Nitish after he joined hands with Lalu. Now they will lose support of Dalits given the way Manjhi is being forced out. The entire message has not gone down well within the community,” said Narayan.