Experts Talk: Will Rahul step up and take responsibility for defeat?

We are tracking the experts who are tracking the counting across three television channels - CNN IBN, NDTV and Times Now. Tracker of Trackers, if you will. 1:30 pm: Lord Meghnad Desai: The Congress will reason that since the party organisation is weak, Rahul should not be wasted on election campaigns. They will retain him in Delhi to take up leadership positions. Sankarshan Thakur: The Congress will give Rahul as many chances as is required. He should come out and explain and take responsibility. Neelabh Mishra: if he doesnt take it on the chin, it reflects badly on the Congress in the next election. But if he did, he would be doing a “Sonia Gandhi” - he will be seen as a leader. Meanwhile, Congress spokesperson advances another alibi for Rahul: Congress vote share has increased in all five States. Asked if the plan to project Rahul Gandhi needs to be reviewed, she says: Renuka Choudhury: Why should we want to change our theory? why do you feel we need to relook at it? If you see all the five states, congress vote share has increased But for Rahul Gandhi, we wouldn’t have had a presence in UP You must realise that the work that he has done has paid off. It is a fact that we need to re-eneergise the local party unit Can you deny that vote share is not relevat? Don’t compare 2009 lok sabha seats to assembly seats. 1:05 pm: Jai Mrug: Congress failed in not projecting a leader in Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh who was “connected to the earth” - Rahul Gandhi going and staying one night at Dalit homes doesn’t count. 12:50 pm: Ashok Malik: I asked Akhilesh during this campaign: “do you miss Amar Singh”. He said: “He is like my uncle, and I wish him well.” [caption id=“attachment_235891” align=“alignright” width=“380” caption=“Did you notice any stars campaigning for SP? Reuters”] [/caption] A minute later, he turned to me and said: “did you notice we dont have any film stars campaigning?” so Akhilesh has been able to do away with the excesses of the SP. It matters for SP party workers that they are being acknowledged. Uma Bharti on Times Now: SP is a criminal party, so it is worrisome for the state that it is number 1 12:30 pm: Ashok Malik: Rahul worked very hard, let’s not deny him credit for that. But Akhilesh had a certain accessibility that Rahul never had, because of his security. . Journalist Neelabh Mishra: Rahul Gandhi should take lessons from Akhilesh Yadav, not just in campaigning, but in political ideas. The day Rahul Gandhi tore the SP manifesto was a big blunder Vinod Mehta: in five years, Akhilesh Yadav has transformed SP’s reputation, he has taken a bad reputatoin in every sphere and transformed it into victory Arnab Goswami: I take back what I said earlier about Akhilesh Yadav having a swai vivekanda-like composure. it was a gross overstatement. but as someone else said, he has a boy-next-door charm 12:20 pm: And topping it all off Arnab Goswamisays: Akhilesh Yadav has a Swami Vivekananda - like composure! [caption id=“attachment_235816” align=“alignright” width=“380” caption=“Akhilesh Singh Yadav greets supporters of his regional Samajwadi Party during an election rally in the town of Tulsipur in Uttar Pradesh, India, Feb. 2, 2012, NYTimes”] [/caption] Vinod Mehta: Rahul micromanaged the UP elections, and we were all told that the party infrastructure in the State doesn’t matter, and that Rahul is so popular he will manage So how can you insulate him now. Kumar ketkar: he is not a vote catcher Arati Jerath: it’s not just that Rahul is not a vote catcher. it represents the complete tatters that the Congress organisation is in. SP leader: Congress depends too much on magic and miracles of leaders = like Rahul Gandhi Those days are over 11:50 am: Kamal Farooqui of SP: when the final tally comes in, SP may not need the support of the Congress. There are other parties, there are independnts, We may be able to cross 203 without the support of the Congress. Ajit Singhji and SP have a long history of supporting us. Arnab Goswami: What if Ajit Singh says the price for RLD support is that Jayant Chaudhury (Ajit Singh’s son) should become Deputy Chief Minister Kamal Farooqui: Please give me the right to stay silent sometimes. Rajiv Shukla of the Congress: Nothing can be decided now, it is a multicornered results, leads are only slender - 200-300 votes. Arnab Goswami: Samajwadi Party is telling the Congress to support us, or we will break your alliance with the RlD Rajiv Shukla: That alliance cannot be broken, but a decision on the support can be taken only by party. Kamal Farooqui: We do not have to break the congress-RLD alliane. he can remain in the uniion ministry Arnab Goswami: so you are suggsting that this is an open marriage annoucement. The Congress stays out of supporting SP, but allows the RLD to back the SP. 11:15 am: An entire waste of time, the Gandhi family’s campaign. Nightmare scenario of UPA falling apart says Vinod Mehta. This is a cliffhanger says Jay Mrug. The story of mandate 2012, Uttarakhand, BJP is currently the single largest party. 10:45 am: Vinod Mehta: For the BJP to be euphoric is to set the bar very low. Congress has done badly, and UPA is in trouble. But to suggest that as soon as this broadcast is over, parliament will be dissolved is wrong. Which UPA ally wants an election? Ashok Malik: But there could be “accidents” between now and 2014 Arati Jerath: The Congress is a sinking ship today. Vinod Mehta: A sinking ship can last two years. Rajagopal: Today in Congress core committee, they will not be discussing UP, they will be discussing who will be the next Prime Minister? Lord Meghnad Desai: Congress has a fig leaf now. it will say: rahul was able to check the BJP, its seats tally did not go up, whereas Congress was able to more than double its seats and can play the kingmaker in UP. 10:20 am: Ashok Malik: Till yesterday, people were talking of a Third Front. But today, we can say categorially: NDA is back in business. Rajagopal: UPA has become a non-performing asset. it should rename itself NPA. Hartosh Singh Bal: Nationally, its not a move towards the BJP, it’s a move away from the Congress. Where there is a secular alternative to the Congress, they have gone towards it as, we saw in UP. Chandan Mitra: Our happiness remains undiminished. Story emerging from this elections is the rout of the Congress - except maybe Uttarakhand, but thats changing dramatically, so let’s hold our horses We never expected to become No. 2 in UP. We were sure that the Congress would be routed, and that has happened, both here and in Punjab. And also Goa. 10:00 am: Arati Jerath: Central govt is pretty orphaned. nobody has a stake in sticking with it anymore, It’s just a matter of time before the central government goes. Firstpost columnist Jai Mrug, projects on Times Now: SP - 170-180 seats, BJP - 70-odd seats BSP- 70-80 seats, Congress - 40 seats BJP’s gains are coming not at Congress’ expense but at the expense of the Samajwadi Party. The better BJP does, the more likely that SP will need Congress support to form the government. An unequivocal SP victory is the worst case scenario for Congress – Rahul is humiliated; they don’t even get kingmaker role; and are more reliant than ever on Mamata. So is the BJP gain an unintended gift for Congress? 9:45 am: Abhishek manu singhvi says on Times Now: “Not even Rahul Gandhi’s worse enemies is calling his leadership into question Rahul Gandhi was outstanding, he was there for 2 years, if it doesnt translate, it doent translate. his shoulders are brodad enough, he is in it for the long haul. He wants congress to stand on its feet”. Arati Jerath: Anna Hazare and Ramdev have impacted the Congress in Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh Will Manomohan carry the can for Rahul Gandhi? Ashok Malik: Yesterday, we were asking who will carry the can for Rahul Gandhi’s failure: Digvijay Singh or someone else? perhaps it will be Manmohan Singh. [caption id=“attachment_235399” align=“alignright” width=“380” caption=“Will Manmohan SIngh be the fall guy? AFP”] [/caption] To which Hartosh Singh Bal adds: Rahul may be spared the blame for these elections, attention will shift to central government corruption 9:30 am: Before Oracle Arnab speaks we have called the Badals the true lions of Punjab . They will form the next government. By 3 pm today, if SP is a few seats short of a majority, Congress will unilaterally offer to support SP - in order to secure SP support at the Centrre

Lord Meghnad Desai: we could see a non-congress candidate elected President.

9:15 am: Jai Mrug on Times Now says - Early hunch: SP could end up with something 180-185 seats BJP could be get 80, biggest loser could be the BSP, which could be competing with the BJP for second slot Congress could get 40 seats Rajagopal: Congress will not cross 25 seats in UP Ashok Malik: biggest danger for the congress: its may not be able to hold onto its MLAs in UP Neerja Chowdhry: Overall picture is the decline of the Congress nationally. In UP if Congress doesnt back SP, it will split. BJP leader Seshadri Chari: the upper-caste vote blocs that went with Mayawati in 2007 have come back to BJP Seshadri Chari, on being asked if BJP will support BSP:  if we are not in a position to form governmt we will sit in oppositon and we will allow anyone to form a government, we will no play spoilsport. we will not support any party. 9:00 am: The crowds are pouring into the Samajwadi Party office. The Yadavs are back, says Rahul Srivastava on NDTV. In Punjab urban seats Congress is ahead, at the moment Punjab is still with the Congress says Yogendra Yadav on CNN IBN. 8:45 am: At this point BJP has surged ahead of the Cong in the supposed bronze medal race in UP. Sudheendra [caption id=“attachment_235231” align=“alignright” width=“380” caption=“The Uma Bharati Effect? PTI”] [/caption] Kulkarni musing on BJP’s early leads on Times Now says: TV reporters who were given the BJP beat told us they were being given a “marginal” beat; but now we seem to be the prime beat Shekher Gupta, on NDTV: “Salman Khurshid has gifted the BJP with the Hindu votes thanks to his playing the minority card. He was the only politician to talk communalisation,” he says, or words to such effect. Dorab Sopariwala on NDTV calls it ‘An Uma Bharati’ victory. Jai Mrug on early trends in western UP: upper caste urban votes have started going back to bjp, muslim voters going back to SP Arnab sticks his necks out: all the naysayers in the congress who said, we want the SP to come begging to us for support will be disappointed now