Experts on Delhi election: AAP is down but not out

Emboldened by the show of strength at its first public rally since the Lok Sabha elections at JantarMantar on August 3, the AamAdmi Partychief Arvind Kejriwalhas instructed volunteers to prepare for a December election. On the mend since its disappointing performance in the Lok Sabha polls where it drew a blank in Delhi despite its dream debut in the assembly polls, the party is desperate for a come-back in Delhi. Kejriwal has announced that the party will launch a door-to-door campaign from Wednesday (August 13) to build public pressure on the Centre to dissolve the assembly and hold elections in the Capital. [caption id=“attachment_1660131” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  AAP. AFP.[/caption] Delhi has been under President’s rule since the AAP minority government led by Kejriwal resigned in February. While the BJP’s half-hearted excuses for not wanting elections is being widely perceived as a sign of its lack of confidence in pulling off a repeat of its Lok Sabha performance (where it came out on top in 60 of the 70 assembly seats), the Congress is lying low after its near-death experience in the parliamentary election. AAP, however, seems keen on raising hell over the political impasse in the Capital hoping to capitalise on the backlash against the BJP for the power and water crisis and is expecting to see a further drift of votes from the Congress to itself. But political commentators feel AAP may not be able to pull off a repeat of its December 2013 performance. Notwithstanding AAP’s vote-share increasing (from 29.3 per cent to 32.9 per cent) in the Lok Sabha polls and Congress party’s vote-share seeing a simultaneous drop (from 24.6 per cent to 15.1 per cent), AAP will find it hard to match its current tally in the Assembly believe experts. “I don’t think AAP will be able to attract half as many voters as it did before. But they definitely can’t be ignored,” says Kumar Ketkar, senior journalist and political commentator, when asked how serious a political threat AAP would be to the BJP if elections were held today. While the people are dissatisfied with AAP, says Ketkar, they have not yet given up on the party. “The urban poor and urban lower-middle class are still with AAP. Only the elite have distanced themselves from AAP,” he says. The party, says Mohammed BadrulAlam, Head of the Political Science Department at JamiaMiliaIslamia University, will be an ‘important player’, come assembly elections. “Two months ago, AAP was in a downward spiral. But now, for a variety of reasons, it is coming back and is going to be an important player. It may not reach the numbers it won in December, but it will get a reasonably decent number of seats,” says Alam. The absence of a credible leader in the BJP who can be projected as the CM candidate combined with allegations of poaching MLAs from AAP and the Congress have hurt the BJP, says the political science professor. “There is also lot of infighting within the BJP. And a lot people are seeing them as opportunists who are trying to poach MLAs from AAP and the Congress. People are saying they are no different than the others,” says Alam. But AAP’s come back could be blunted by the Congress, which contrary to perception, political experts feel could improve its tally. In what should be more music to the ears of the Congress party, especially after its surprise win in all three seats in the Uttarakhand by-polls last month,analysts are predicting brighter days for the Grand Old Party in Delhi as well. “Congress will do better than last time. If elections are delayed beyond November, Congress may improve significantly. But at this point of time, I think Congress will be in double digits. Definitely number three but more than last time,” says Alam. Ketkar predicts that Congress might even double its tally from eight last time to 15-18 in the next round of assembly polls. “This time I would give them 15-18 seats. It won’t be as miserable as last time.Many people had three reasons to vote out the Congress. One, was they were anti-UPA government. Now that feeling is gone. The second factor was the arrival of Modi with a bang. Now even that factor is gone since Delhi is not electingModi. And the third factor is, a large number of people were not anti-Congress as a party but they were anti-UPA government. And so there will be a correction like in the stock market which sees a correction after a big fall or a big rise. From eight seats, my hunch Congress will get about 15.”