The state-wise exit polls project a surge in vote share of the NDA and the BJP from 2014 to 2019 and a dip in vote share of the UPA and the Congress. According to News18-IPSOS survey, the NDA and the BJP will gain from first-time voters between the ages of 23 and 30, which will give the edge to Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The exit polls predictions are based on sample surveys done by various agencies and are not the final outcome, which will be announced on 23 May. However, it gives an indication based on trends.
The survey also suggested that voting on ground doesn’t follow the simple arithmetic of en block vote transfer. It was expected that in Uttar Pradesh the mahagathbandhan — an alliance of Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and RLD — would have a larger vote share in comparison to 2014, when these parties contested individually.
The exit polls projected a 37.1 percent vote share compared to 41.8 percent (SP 22.2 percent and BSP 19.6 percent ) in 2014. On the other hand, the vote share of NDA comprising the BJP and Apna Dal (S) is 51.9 percent: a 8.6 percent jump over 2014 LS election, which was 43.3 percent.
Consider five states based on News18-IPSOS exit polls: Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Bihar, Punjab and Madhya Pradesh.
In Uttar Pradesh, where it is locked in a bitter battle with the mahagathbandhan, the BJP could end up losing a few seats to the combined force, when compared to 71 seats in 2014. But the BJP could still manage to secure 60 to 62 seats, while the SP-BSP combine will stop at 17 to 19 seats, according to the survey.
Had the alliance follow simple arithmetic of vote transfer, the mahagathbandhan would have trounced BJP. The mahagathbandhan is expected to gain from certain pockets with high concentration of minority and Yadav voters.
In 2014, the vote share of the BJP, LJP and RLSP as NDA allies were 29.4 percent, 6.4 percent and 3 percent and the JD(U) was 15.8 percent. The survey projects 28.9 percent for BJP, 24.3 percent for JD(U) and 11.7 percent for LJP. Whereas in 2014 the UPA (Congress, RJD and others) got 28.5 percent compared to projected 24.4 percent: a dip of 4.1 percent.
This election, BJP and JD(U) have joined hands. In the past Assembly elections, there had been transfer of votes from JD(U) to BJP, and going by this trend, the BJP-JD(U) combine is expected to gain.
Going by the exit polls, an interesting development in West Bengal is that in 2014 Lok Sabha election, the BJP, which was in third position with a vote share of 16.84 percent by winning two seats, will improve in 2019. The survey projects BJP’s share at 30 percent: thus securing second position. Trinamool Congress continuous to be at the top with a predicted increase in vote share from 39.35 percent to 57.3 percent. Congress continues to be in the fourth position with a predicted dip in vote share: from 9.58 percent in 2014 to 5.2 percent..
The survey projects an improvement in the Congress’ vote share in Punjab in 2019 at 46.4 percent against 33.10 percent in 2014. As a result, the Congress may gain seats in the state (in 2014 it was 3 seats).
The vote share projected for NDA (BJP and SAD) is 34.7 percent against actual 29 percent in 2014: a projected increase by 5.7 percent.
According to the survey, in the Congress-ruled Madhya Pradesh, the BJP's projected vote share is at 63.6 percent: an increase of 8.6 percent (up from 55% in 2014). In the case of Congress, there is a 2.2 percent decrease in vote share: from 34.9 percent in 2014 to 32.7 percent 2019.
In 2014, the BJP won 27 seats out of 29; and Congress got two. The survey predicted that the Congress, despite being in government in the state, won’t be able make much difference. The Congress ended the BJP's 15-year rule in Madhya Pradesh in the 2018 Assembly election.
However, it would be too early to draw any conclusion as exit polls only point to trends. But even if these trends are to be believed, the ruling Congress in Madhya Pradesh will have failed to leverage its victory. The exit poll predicts that the NDA would also gain from Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribes voters (43.7 percent and 45.1 percent respectively) in comparison to the UPA.
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Updated Date: May 21, 2019 22:17:26 IST