Exit polls: BJP to end Gogoi's rule in Assam, Mamata to win Bengal, limbo in TN

After voting in four states and one Union Territory came to an end on Monday after more than a month long exercise, various exit polls have announced their predictions either which party or alliance will come to power in the five regions. While they differed on who will win Tamil Nadu, the pollsters were quite sure that the BJP alliance will win Assam, the Left in Kerala, the DMK in Puducherry, and they were unanimous in saying that Mamata Banerjee will retain West Bengal.

Here’s who predicted what, statewise:


Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi. PTI

Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi. PTI

Three exit polls have stated that BJP will win Assam and end Tarun Gogoi’s 15-year chief ministership. Axis-India Today predicted BJP will win 79-93 seats, ABP-Nielsen gave BJP 81 seats and NewsX-Chanakya gave BJP 90 seats. According to TimesNow C-Voter exit poll, the BJP and allies would get 57 seats, the Congress 41, AIUDF 18 and others 10. However, Gogoi is confident of a victory. “I don't see why there will be anti-incumbency. I trust the people of Assam, they know how much development has happened under us,” Gogoi told ANI.

Tamil Nadu

Jayalalitha. File photo. AFP

Jayalalitha. File photo. AFP

Exit polls are divided over the results of this state, that saw 69.19 percent polling till 6 pm. NewsNation and the Axis-My India exit polls predict that the DMK will win the state, thereby ending the reign of Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK. However, C-Voter claims that Amma’s party will retain power in the state. The News Nation TV exit poll gave 95-99 seats in the 234-member assembly to AIADMK and 114-118 to the DMK-Congress alliance. The People Welfare Front (PWF) alliance, made up of six parties, was set to get 14 seats and the BJP four, it said. Nine seats could go to others. The Axis-My India exit poll predicted 124-140 seats to the DMK-Congress alliance, 89-110 to the AIADMK, 0-3 to the BJP and 4-8 to others. The CVoter exit poll, however, said the AIADMK would bag 139 seats, leaving the DMK-Congress alliance at the second place with 78 seats. The BJP was unlikely to win any seat in Tamil Nadu, the exit polls said.


CPM general secretary Sitaram Yechuri. PTI

CPM general secretary Sitaram Yechuri. PTI

The voter turnout in the state was 71 percent till 6pm with the EC saying that it is likely to go up. The Axis-India Today and India TV-C-Voter exit polls both predict that the CPM-led LDF will come to power in the state, thereby toppling the Congress-led UDF. The India Today-Axis exit poll gave 88 to 101 seats to the Left Democratic Front (LDF) in the 140-member house and 38-48 to the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF). The BJP could get zero to three seats while one to four seats may go to others. The India TV C-Voter exit poll predicted 74-82 seats to the LDF, which is led by the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPM).

CPM general secretary Sitaram Yechury, however, stayed cautious, especially as the same polls predict his party will lose West Bengal. “Exit polls never turned out to be true as we've seen in Delhi and Bihar. We should wait for final result,” he told ANI.

West Bengal

Mamata Banerjee. PTI

Mamata Banerjee. PTI

Polling was conducted across the state in five phases and after compiling information from all of them, four exit pollsters have predicted just one thing: Mamata Banerjee’s TMC will retain power in the state. ETV, NewsNation, Chanakya and ABP-Nielsen are all sure that it will be Mamata again. Chanakya even predicted that the Trinamool Congress will win between 210 and 224 seats while the Left-Congress alliance will gain only 70 to 79 seats and the BJP between 14 and 19 seats. According to ABP-Nielsen, the Trinamool would win 163 of the 294 assembly seats. The CPI-M-led Left Front and the Congress combine would get 126 with a solitary seat going to the BJP. Others would get four seats. But it warned that in 25 constituencies the margin of victory was set to be less than five percent, and the final outcome could drastically change depending on the results in these seats. C-Voter also predicted a whopping 167 seats for the Trinamool, 75 for the Left, 45 for the Congress, four to the BJP and three to others.

Looks like atleast one politician will get a good night’s sleep tonight.

Overall polling percentage of 81.94 percent was recorded in till 5 pm, ANI quoted the Election Commission as saying. Exit polls predicted a win for the DMK-Congress alliance in Puducherry too, ousting the ruling All India NR Congress.


With inputs from IANS

Firstpost is now on WhatsApp. For the latest analysis, commentary and news updates, sign up for our WhatsApp services. Just go to Firstpost.com/Whatsapp and hit the Subscribe button.

Updated Date: May 18, 2016 19:35:21 IST

Also See