Exit polls 2014 Live: BJP won't lose ground to Congress in Karnataka, says NDTV poll

9:30 pm: NDTV says BJP to win big in Karnataka The NDTV Hamsa poll predicts that the BJP will win 16 seats in the state while the Congress will win just 10 seats. It is just the CNN-IBN exit poll which has predicted that the Congress will emerge on top in the state. The Janata Dal it says will win all of 2 seats in the state. Has the Yeddyurappa factor played a major role in ensuring that the BJP didn’t yield too much ground to the Congress? Or is it the Modi factor? We’ll finally only know on 16 May but for now the outlook is good for the BJP. 9:00 pm: NDTV says Jaya going to win 32 seats The most optimistic prediction for the AIADMK has come from the NDTV exit poll which says that Jayalalithaa’s party could win 32 seats in the state. The DMK, it says, will win just 5 seats in the state. The BJP with all its allies will win just 2 seats. The Congress will win nothing, the survey says. So again it’s not sure if Karti Chidambaram will be going to the Lok Sabha this year. 8:20 pm: In Telangana, TRS expected to hold sway, says NDTV survey The survey predicts that the Telangana Rashtra Samiti will win big in the newly formed state with 11 seats. The Congress will find some succour in the new state with 3 seats. The BJP-TDP alliance is expected to win 3 seats while the MIM is expected to hold on to Hyderabad. 8:15 pm: In Seemandhra region, Congress expected to be decimated The NDTV Hamsa exit poll predicts a complete decimation of the Congress in Andhra Pradesh. According to the survey, the BJP-TDP alliance should win 13 seats, and the debutante YSR Congress will get 12 seats. The Congress will end up with 0 seats, the survey predicted. End of updates for 12 May 8:45 pm: Will BJP finally win a seat in Kerala? The ABP News survey predicts that the Congress-led UDF will win 9 seats in the state of Kerala while the CPM-led LDF will win 8 seats. It stunningly also predicts that the BJP will win one seat in the state. This will be historic if it does take place since the party has NEVER won a single seat in the state ever before. As far as verdicts go, even the BJP may be pleasantly surprised if this comes true. 8:40 pm : BJP to sweep Karnataka, says ABP News survey The ABP news survey also predicted very optimistic numbers for the BJP in Karnataka. The survey predicts that the BJP will win 16 seats in the state while the Congress will win just 8 seats despite its thumping victory in the recent assembly polls. The JD(S) will win just 4 seats, the survey predicted. 8:30 pm: ABP News gives slightly lower numbers to Jayalalithaa The ABP News survey predicts that Jayalalithaa will win only 22 seats in Tamil Nadu. The DMK it predicts will do slightly better than expected with 10 seats. The Left will win 2 seats in the state while the BJP with its various allies is expected to win 4 seats, the survey predicted. 7:50 pm: TDP-BJP alliance set to sweep Seemandhra, predicts exit poll When it comes to Seemandhra the Times Now-ORG poll only has good news for the BJP-TDP alliance which it says will win 17 seats in the state. The YSR Congress, according to this survey, will win only 8 seats in the region while the Congress as expected is not expected to win a single seat in the region. This result is one that Jagan Reddy will be hoping doesn’t hold true. 7:45 pm: In Telangana, the TRS to make the most of creation of new state The Times-ORG poll predicts that the the TRS will win 9 of the seats in the newly created state. The TDP-BJP alliance will win only 2 seats in the new state, it said. The Congress will come in second with 4 seats, despite attempting to take credit for the formation of the new state and the Left Front will win 2 seats in the state, the survey predicts. So does this mean all doors are now open to TRS chief K Chandrashekhar Rao? And will the TDP chief stand for being an alliance partner with him? 7:40 pm: Just how big is the Jaya wave in Tamil Nadu So Jayalalithaa is expected to win in Tamil Nadu, that’s for certain, but the size of her victory keeps increasing with each exit poll prediction. The Times Now-ORG poll exit poll predicts that the Tamil Nadu chief minister’s party is expected to win 31 seats out of 40 in the state. The DMK, according to the survey will be decimated, winning just 7 seats in the state. The survey predicts that the Congress will win just one seat. So Karti Chidambaram may just be going to Parliament after all? 7: 30 pm: Times Now gives even better numbers for the BJP in Karnataka The Times Now-ORG exit poll on the other hand paints a far more optimistic picture for the BJP in the state. According to the survey, the BJP is set to win 18 seats in the state, just one short of what it won in 2009. The Congress according to the survey, isn’t going to do well in the state and is going win just 9 seats in the state. The Janata Dal (Secular) is expected to win just one seat in the state. 7:20 pm: Congress to dominate in Karnataka, but BJP does better than expected The IBN-Lokniti survey predicted that the Congress is expected to win 12-16 seats in the state but despite having won the state in the recent assembly elections, the BJP is expected to make the most of support from Modi in the state. The BJP is expected to win 10-14 seats in the state. The BJP had won 18 seats in the 2009 election and could end up with 10 to 14 seats in the state in this election. The Congress could win between 12-16 seats, the survey said. Despite the Congress thumping the BJP in the state polls, the latter seem to have got their act together with pre-poll strategies like bringing back former chief minister BS Yeddyurappa. “Every candidate only made the most of the support for Modi and none of them were talking about their previous state government. They only said that every vote for them would be a vote for Modi,” Sandeep Shastri of Lokniti said. Here’s what the vote share is expected to look like: 7:15 pm: Congress-led UDF expected to dominate in Kerala In Kerala, the Congress- led UDF is expected to win the majority of the seats in the state. The UDF is expected to win 11-14 seats while the LDF is expected to win 6-9 seats, the IBN-Lokniti survey said. According to the IBN-Lokniti CSDS National Election Tracker exit poll survey, the Congress-led United Democratic Front is expected to win 45 percent of the vote share while the CPM-led Left Democratic Front is expected to win 40 percent of the vote share. The Aam Aadmi Party is also expected to garnet 3 percent of the vote share, eating into the vote shares of the UDF and LDF. “The Left has not been able to get their minorities on their side and that will cost them,” sociologist Dipankar Gupta said. 7:15 pm: Why isn’t Congress benefitting from the creation of the new state According to sociologist Dipankar Gupta, the Congress tried to be too clever by half in the creation of the new state and it is expected to cost them in both Seemandhra and Telangana. 7:10 pm: YSR Congress and TDP-BJP alliance to share spoils in Seemandhra In the Seemandhra region the YSR Congress and TDP-BJP alliance is expected to share the spoils with both parties expected to win 11-15 seats a piece. Here’s what the vote share is expected to look like: In Coastal Andhra Pradesh region the TDP-BJP alliance is expected to come up on top, while in the Rayalaseema region it is Jaganmohan Reddy’s YSR Congress that is expected to garner a higher vote share. 7:05 pm: TRS set to dominate in Seemandhra region In Telangana, the TRS is expected to see the largest gainer in the state. The TRS is expected to win 8-12 seats while the Congress is expected to win 3-5 seats. The BJP-TDP alliance is only going to get 2-4 seats, the survey projected. According to the IBN-Lokniti CSDS National Election Tracker exit poll survey, the Telangana Rashtra Samiti is expected to garner the maximum vote share with 37 percent of the vote share, thanks to it leading the charge for the creation of the new state. This vote share is over double what the party recorded in the 2009 elections, when it polled just 15 percent of the vote share. The Congress, despite claiming the credit for finally creating the state, is expected to emerge the second in the state with 31 percent. The survey finds that the party’s vote share fell almost 5 percent from the 2009 election and is even lower than what the pre-poll survey predicted. The BJP-TDP alliance is expected to get 21 percent of the vote share. 7:00 pm: Has the BJP alliance failed to click? TM Veeraraghav argued on the panel that the BJP had failed to get its act together because the party with all its allies isn’t expected to get more than 4-6 seats. “Vijaykanth is a bigger star than Modi in Tamil Nadu but it has evidently failed to click in the state,” he said. Notably the Congress is not going to win even a single seat which could mean that Karti Chidambaram may not be going to Parliament this time round. 7:00 pm: Jayalalithaa expected to dominate in Tamil Nadu The IBN-Lokniti poll predicts a sweeping victory for the AIADMK in the southern state of Tamil Nadu and is expected to put a smile on the face of J Jayalalithaa. According to the survey, the AIADMK should win 22 to 28 seats in the state and the DMK is expected to win between 7 to 11 seats. The BJP with its umbrella alliance in the state is not expected to get more than 6 seats. Jayalalithaa, who has been pushing for a greater national role is sure to be happy with the results. She has been positing herself as a viable alternative to Narendra Modi, pitting her ‘Tamil Nadu development model’ against his Gujarat one. Tamil Nadu has been dotted with posters portraying her in a national role, including one in which prominent world leaders including Barack Obama and Putin are bowing before her. Here’s what the vote share is expected to look like in the state: 6:30 pm: Who’s going to dominate in the south? Will the BJP be able to bank on a Modi wave to win in states where it traditionally enjoys little support? In Seemandhra and Telangana, the BJP has tied up with the Telugu Desam Party in a bid to establish its presence in the two new states. [caption id=“attachment_1519773” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Representational image. Firstpost/ Sandip Roy[/caption] In Karnataka, has the party got its act together in time by getting back former chief minister BS Yeddyurappa? In Kerala, the BJP has had no presence in the state, but the party led by its prime ministerial candidate has attempted to to make inroads. Has it worked? In Tamil Nadu, the party has tied up with a bunch of parties in the hope of increasing its presence in a state that it has virtually no presence. But if Jayalalithaa is to be a post-poll ally, will she have the requisite numbers? Track the latest updates across exit polls with us.