Exit polls 2014: In Uttar Pradesh, it's a Narendra Modi tsunami

With its 80 seats, star MPs and a complicated electoral arithmetic influenced by religion and caste, Uttar Pradesh has always been a state all national parties make a beeline for during the polls. However, the presence of regional parties with comprehensive clout on the state’s politics have always made the general elections in Uttar Pradesh, a nail-biting one. This year round, the political winds in Uttar Pradesh might well indicate the fate of the parties elsewhere in the country. Narendra Modi, debuting in the Lok Sabha polls this season, decided to anchor his BJP campaign in Uttar Pradesh, even deciding to contest from Varanasi, apart from Vadodara. Amethi, in UP, is a traditional Gandhi bastion, so is Rae Bareli. Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi are fighting from UP. A new entrant in the poll horizon in AAP’s Arvind Kejriwal, who has decided to take Modi on at Varanasi. However, the exit poll results indicate, that the presence of various factors have not made the fight a close one. [caption id=“attachment_1520245” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Men walk past a hoarding of Narendra Modi. Reuters.[/caption] The results of the Lokniti-CSDS exit polls, conducted for CNN IBN_,_ shows that the BJP’s vote share could jump by a 22.5 percent from its actual vote share in the 2009 polls. Compared to just 17.5 percent votes in 2009, the IBN exit polls show that the BJP could amass almost 40 percent of the state’s votes, followed by Samajwadi Party which could get up to 24 percent votes. However, one has to note here that the SP is hardly losing its old ground, given that it got around 23.5 percent of the state’s votes in 2009. The biggest loser, predictably, is the Congress which had performed fabulously in UP in 2009, but then were routed in the Assembly elections under Rahul Gandhi’s leadership in 2013. The Congress and RLD’s vote-share in 2009, was 21.5 percent and the Lokniti-CSDS survey, gives just 10 percent to the alliance this time. BSP too is set to lose out on its votes, it’s share sinking to 21 percent from 27.4 percent during the last general elections. Needless to say, Narendra Modi leads the PM choice race. However, the astonishing revival of BJP’s fortunes cannot be attributed to just Modi alone. Sixty four percent of the respondents of the survey were of the opinion that they would have voted for the party, even if Modi was not the party’s mascot or was not contesting from the state. Actually, on 17 percent of the surveys’ respondents said that Narendra Modi was a deciding factor in  voting for BJP. The caste-based vote-share, however, provides a clear picture on what holds the key to the party’s resurgence in the state. Seventy-three percent of the upper caste respondents in th CNN-IBN survey said they have voted for the BJP, quite predictably. However, 54 percent of the OBCs and 41 percent of the scheduled castes have also decided to back the BJP in the state making it evident, that the Muslim votes (or the lack of them), has probably no bearing on the BJP’s fortunes this time round  That giant vote share is likely to yield BJP anywhere from 45-53 seats while SP comes in second with 13-17, followed by BSP at 10-14 and Congress comes last with 3-5. ABP News also predicts 46 seats for the BJP, and gives the Congress just 8 seats, where as SP and BSP get 12 and 13 seats respectively. Ratan Mani Lal, reported for for Firstpost, ““Not only the OBCs, but even the most backward castes (MBCs) are also getting drawn to the BJP, especially Modi. His identity as a tea-seller has been a big draw, and the neglected communities among the OBCs, such as Kumhars (potters), dhobi (washermen), bunkars (weavers), nau (barbers), badhai (carpenters), sunar (goldsmith) and teli (oil grinders) etc have been convinced by Shah in his own typical manner that it will be Modi, and not Mulayam Singh Yadav, Mayawati or even Rahul Gandhi who can ever understand the ‘pain’ of being marginalized.” The other surprise: 56 percent of Muslim votes are likely to go to SP despite the Muzaffarnagar riots. Only 13 percent of the Muslim votes go to Congress, despite its repeated appeals to the community.