News18-IPSOS exit poll survey Sunday forecast another term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi with a thumping majority for the Bharatiya Janata Party.
The survey, which employed four stages of multi-sampling as part of its methodology to ensure a wider sample, said that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to win 336 seats in Lok Sabha elections 2019, with BJP alone slated to cross the 272-seat majority mark. If the prediction of most pollsters is anywhere close to the final results which will come out on 23 May, it will be for the first time in 48 years that an incumbent prime minister and his party return to power with a full majority. The last time this occurred was in 1971, when Indira Gandhi led the Congress (R) to victory with a full majority after having done the same in 1967 (for the united Congress).
The survey said that UPA, the principal Opposition alliance led by the Congress, will find its ambitions capped at a dismal 82.
The saffron party appeared to make major gains in eastern states of West Bengal and Odisha. The NDA is likely to sweep the states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Jharkhand, and improve its tally in Karnataka and Maharashtra. In Uttar Pradesh, where it is locked in a bitter battle with the SP-BSP mahagathbandhan, the BJP could end up losing a few seats to the combined force of Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party, when compared to last year's impressive 71 seats. But the party will still manage to secure 60 to 62 seats, while the SP-BSP combine will stop at 17 to 19 seats, according to the survey. Besides, any losses the party incurs will be offset by significant gains in Odisha and West Bengal.
News18-Ipsos poll said the BJP's tally will improve to 3 to 5 seats in West Bengal from the last election's two seats. The saffron party might win six to eight seats in Odisha.
Likewise, a poll rout is predicted for the Aam Aadmi Party in its bastion New Delhi. According to the survey, the BJP, which won all seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi, is again set to sweep the National Capital Territory with around six to seven seats. The AAP and Congress run the risk of scoring nought.
The survey further showed that the BJP has managed to reverse some of the damage it suffered ahead of last year's Assembly polls in key Hindi heartland states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisdarh. The Congress, according to the exit poll, may be limited to just two seats in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, and may not win even a single seat in Rajasthan. The BJP won 26 of 29 seats in Madhya Pradesh in 2014 and it is set to retain 24 to 27 seats. In Rajasthan, it will win 22 to 23 seats while in Chhattisgarh, it may get seven to nine seats, while Congress will be limited to two to four seats.
Furthermore, the News18-IPSOS survey is hinting at a historical political picture. News18-Ipsos said that even if the BJP's poll tally falls by six seats, NDA's polling percentage will improve to 49 percent, in contrast to 2014, when it garnered close to 39 percent votes. It said 26.5 percent votes have been polled for other regional parties, including the Mamata-led TMC, SP, BSP, TRS, BJD, YSRCP, AAP and TDP. In 2014 polls, 38.5 percent votes were polled in favour of NDA and the UPA's vote share was 23 percent.
The CNN News18-Ipsos projected only 46 seats for the Congress and 82 for its allies.
Elections to 542 seats of the 543-member Lok Sabha ended Sunday. The Election Commission has deferred election for Vellore in Tamil Nadu over allegations of misuse of money power. The counting of votes is slated for 23 May. In 2014, the NDA had won 336 seats and the Congress 44 seats. The BJP had notched up its maiden majority by bagging 282 seats.
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Updated Date: May 20, 2019 10:14:11 IST