BJP's Muslim vote share increased by 4.1%: C-Voter survey
Did the Patel factor really work?
According to the demographic data of the C-Voter survey, all the din around the Patidar movement and their discontent with the BJP have indeed resulted in a dent on the party's vote share. The survey said that the BJP lost roughly 10.1 percent votes from the Leuva Patidar community and around 12 percent votes from the Karva Patidar community.
The Congress party, in contrast, has gained close to 16.5 and 19 percent votes from both these communities, respectively.
India Today survey shows 27 swing seats may be a game changer for Congress
India Today - Axis My India poll suggests that there are at least 27 seats where the winning margin was around 1-2 percent. If the Congress manages to wrest free almost all of those constituencies out, only then it may stand a chance of winning in Gujarat.
Overall picture from Himachal Pradesh exit polls
Himachal Pradesh Exit Poll
ABP-CSDS predicts BJP to get 38 seats, Congress at 29
Gujarat: Updated Tally after factoring in Today's Chanakya's prediction
Gujarat Exit Poll
135 (+-) 11
Today's Chanakya poll predicts a whopping 135 seats for BJP, the highest in any survey so far
Sensex gains 194 pts ahead of Gujarat exit polls; Midcap index flat
Equity benchmarks closed volatile session on stronger note as the Sensex rallied 193.66 points to 33,246.70 ahead of Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh exit polls later today. The 50-share NSE Nifty gained 59.10 points at 10,252.10.
A look at how accurate have exit polls been in the past
Exit poll surveys in the past have exhibited mixed accuracy in predicting election results. In the five states that went for Assembly polls last year, the exit poll surveys by most agencies were largely accurate about Assam (BJP), Kerala (Left Democratic Front), Puducherry and West Bengal (Trinamool). However, Tamil Nadu proved to be a hard nut to crack for most agencies as they completely failed to predict the outcome.
Almost all of them had predicted that the DMK-Congress alliance will win the election, however, Jayalalithaa's AIADMK swept the polls in a historic win.
In Uttar Pradesh, while no polling agency was able to successfully gauge the BJP’s seat-count, almost all of them predicted that it would be the single largest party. So it was.
Congress likely to get around 100 seats: Hardik Patel
Patidar leader Hardik Patel on Thursday said the ruling BJP was set to lose the Gujarat Assembly elections, and that the Congress was likely to get around 100 seats in the 182-member house.
"Official files have already started disappearing from the state Secretariat," he said while talking to journalists after casting his vote in Viramgam in Ahmedabad district.
Patel said the Bharatiya Janata Party was likely to get around 70 seats.
Twitter launches live stream of Gujarat elections
Twitter on Wednesday announced that it will live stream the conversations related to the Gujarat elections on its platform as the political interest and discourse on the polls generated over 800,000 tweets in the past week on the microblogging website.
The live stream of elections will be available in English and Hindi, and will take place on Thursday when the second phase of polling is being held, and on counting day 18 December, the company said in a statement.
Sensex Struggles Ahead Of Gujarat Exit Poll Results
Indian shares fell on Thursday, as investors waited for early forecasts on the winner of a key state election, with sentiment also muted as inflation ticked higher and industrial output weakened. Bonds and the rupee, however, rose after the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates.
The Nifty volatility index, a barometer of investor fear, hit its highest level since 1 February on Thursday.
Post 5 pm, exit poll results to predict if Modi still invincible in Gujarat
Gujarat election exit poll results 2017 will be out after 5 pm today. The surveys conducted by several agencies will predict which party is leading the elections on the basis of interviews conducted right after voters casted their votes. However, these predictions are conducted on a relatively small sample size as compared to the entire electorate, and their accuracy is not a guarantee.
Critics say the projections of these surveys can be influenced by the choice, wording and timing of the questions, and by the nature of the sample drawn. Nonetheless media houses alongwith other agencies employ utmost carefulness to get the surveys as close to the actual results as possible.
After the last votes have been cast in Gujarat on Thursday, exit poll results for the state and Himachal Pradesh Assembly elections will be broadcast from 5 pm.
Various news channels, in collaboration with poll agencies such as Today's Chanaktya and CVoter will predict the winners in legislative Assemblies.
However, these predictions are conducted on a relatively small sample size as compared to the entire electorate, and can sometimes go wrong.
Representational image. AP
Critics say projections can be influenced by the choice, wording and timing of the questions, and by the nature of the sample drawn. Nonetheless, media agencies take utmost care to get the surveys done as close to the actual results as possible.
The Election Commission (EC) also places certain restrictions on publication and distribution of poll predictions and related data. The poll panel barred exit polls related to Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat starting 8 am on 9 November to 6 pm on 14 December.
Noting that there are instances of violations of the rules by some television channels in the telecast of their panel discussions, debates and other news and current affairs programmes, the poll panel warned that violation of Section 126 is "punishable with imprisonment upto two years, or with fine or both".
The EC also drew the print media's attention to the Press Council of India guidelines to be observed during elections, which urge the press to give objective reports about elections and the candidates and avoid reports which tend to promote feelings of enmity or hatred among people on the ground of religion, race, caste, community or language.
"Special care must be taken to report opinion polls accurately and fairly, by disclosing to viewers as to who commissioned, conducted and paid for the conduct of the opinion polls and the broadcast. If a news broadcaster carries the results of an opinion poll or other election projection, it must also explain the context, and the scope and limits of such polls with their limitations.
"Broadcast of opinion polls should be accompanied by information to assist viewers to understand the poll's significance, such as the methodology used, the sample size, the margin of error, the fieldwork dates, and data used. Broadcasters should also disclose how vote shares are converted to seat shares," it further added.
Himachal Pradesh concluded voting on 9 November and recorded its highest turnout at 74 percent. Gujarat went to polls in two phases, with the second phase of polling ending on Thursday. First phase of polls were conducted on 9 December with around 68 percent voter turnout. In the second phase, 47 percent votes were cast until 2 pm. Voting was being held in 93 Assembly constituencies across 14 districts in northern and central regions of the state on Thursday.
There are 851 candidates in the fray. In the first phase, voting was held for the 89 seats of 19 districts of Saurashtra and South Gujarat region, with a total of 977 candidates in the fray.
The results will be declared on 18 December, the same day as Himachal Pradesh.
With inputs from agencies
Your guide to the latest seat tally, live updates, analysis and list of winners for Lok Sabha Elections 2019 on firstpost.com/elections. Follow us on Twitter and Instagram or like our Instagram or like our Facebook page for updates from all 542 constituencies on counting day of the general elections.