Elections 2014: No sign of Modi wave in rural Karnataka

Bangalore: It was all over the media and particularly on the social media. From radio, television, hoardings to aggressive campaigns on Facebook and Twitter, the so called ‘Modi wave’ literally swept the people! However, whether the wave really touched the electoral ground at all in Karnataka is questionable.

For, going by the trend, people of Karnataka have returned to the basics of politics during this election, particularly during the final stages of campaigning. Regionalism, caste combinations and capability of the candidates have taken the centre-stage with the ‘Modi wave’ felt only in the urban areas.

The BJP, which suffered a humiliating defeat during the last assembly elections, heavily depended on the ‘Modi wave’ to boost its image. The return of former chief minister BS Yeddyurappa and former minister B Sriramulu has helped the party only in their respective constituencies and not the consolidation of the entire caste calculations, as expected by the BJP.

In the early stages, the RSS which played major role in selecting candidates, was confident about the perceived craze for Modi. Consequently, it ignored opposition from local BJP units while selecting candidates and forced Shobha Karandlaje, Pratap Simha, D V Sadananda Gowda and Nalin Kumar Kateel upon Udupi-Chikmagalur, Mysore, Bangalore North and Dakshina Kannada constituencies. This has triggered cold war among the local leaders and the candidates and it may affect the final outcome of the elections.

While unexpected developments in the Janata Dal (Secular) in Mysore appear to favour the BJP candidate, the three other candidates are facing tough competition from the Congress. Nalin Kumar Kateel and Shobha Karandlaje in particular are under tremendous pressure to win the polls because both their constituencies happen to be BJP strongholds. Defeat in these two constituencies will mean a big blow to the BJP in Karnataka.

Soon after the Ram Janambhoomi movement, the Sangh Parivar had nurtured two Hindutva laboratories in Karnataka. In Hubli, the long standing dispute over Muslims using the Rani Chennamma ground as Idgah Maidan was picked by the Sangh Parivar. Though the issue was put to the backburner by HD Deve Gowda when he became the CM of Karnataka, it helped the Sangh Parivar to polarise the Hindu votes in the Mumbai-Karnataka region (Northwest Karnataka).

Meanwhile, the Sangh Parivar found another sensitive issue in the Datta Peetha row in Chikmagalur. Further, the patronisation of the migrant Byari Muslims by the Congress and the resultant demographic and economic growth of the community further helped the Sangh Parivar consolidate the Hindu votes for the BJP. This paid rich dividends to the BJP in both the regions comprising Coorg, Chikmagalur, Mangalore, Udupi and Shimoga districts. In the past, the BJP always ensured that the Idgah Maidan issue and Datta Peetha row became the election highlights.

This time, however, the focus is only on the ‘Modi wave,’ with even a senior leader like Ananth Kumar chanting the same mantra and seeking votes.

Though there were differences among the Congress leaders, particularly between the original Congressmen headed by Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee President G Parameshwara and the ‘migrants’ headed by chief minister Siddaramaiah, the approach to elections was methodical, particularly at the intervention of the High Command towards the end of the campaigning. The Congress had always maintained its control over Hyderabad-Karnataka region (Northeast Karnataka). With the UPA government according special status to the region under Article 371 J, the Congress has tightened its grip and claims to win at least four out of the six seats in Hyderabad-Karnataka.

In the Mumbai-Karnataka region, the Congress has made surprise moves. This has shaken sitting BJP MPs (who are seeking re-election) in at least four constituencies. Barring the urban pockets, the ‘Modi wave’ has failed to reach the larger section of voters.

In the Old-Mysore region (South Karnataka), the Congress is facing stiff challenge from its arch rival the JD(S). While the JD(S) will retain Hassan, it is likely to wrest the Mandya constituency from Congress. The JD(S) is giving tough fight to the Congress in Kolar, Tumkur and Chitradurga constituencies as well.

In Bangalore, where BJP had won all the three constituencies during the last election, it is struggling in Bangalore South and is locked in a pitched battle in Bangalore North. While Ananth Kumar is facing Nandan Nilkeni, former CM D V Sadananda Gowda is pitted against former MP C Narayanaswamy. It is to be seen if the ‘Modi wave’ has worked in these two constituencies.

Surprisingly, the BJP is putting up a brave fight in Bangalore Rural, which Congress had wrested from the JD(S). D K Suresh, who had won the by-elections last year with a comfortable margin of over one lakh votes, is facing the heat from Muniraju of the BJP.

The prospects of the Congress, the BJP and the JD(S) appear to be evenly poised with neither of them expected to come anywhere close to their targets.