Election Tracker: UDF ahead in Kerala, thanks to CM Chandy, not Centre

Kerala may be one of the few states that the Congress can hope to win some seats, but it’s not on the basis of their record at the centre. They should send a thank you note to Chief Minister Oommen Chandy. The Lokniti, CSDS-IBN National Tracker Poll has found that despite anti-incumbency against the central government, goodwill for the Oommen Chandy state government is expected to ensure that the Congress can still win a majority of the seats in the state. [caption id=“attachment_1460809” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Will Congress benefit from the good will Chandy enjoys? PTI image[/caption] As per the survey, as the elections approach support for the United Democratic Front (UDF) has fallen but it still enjoys a wide lead over the Left Democratic Front (LDF). The UDF leads 45 percent to 36 percent in terms of voteshare. The BJP is a distant third with 11 percent of the vote. AAP figures fourth with 3 percent. However, the UDF still has reasons for worry, for its core voters seem willing to switch at the last minute. Among UDF voters, 76 percent said they won’t change their minds by voting day, and 12 percent said they may, and another 12 percent said they can’t say. If 24 percent of UDF voters change their minds on voting day, the results could be significantly different. In contrast, LDF voters were rock solid: 96 percent said they wouldn’t change their minds. The survey also shows that despite frenetic campaigning by the Aam Aadmi Party and the BJP, with Narendra Modi even meeting church leaders in the state, it is expected to only yield marginal gains for both the parties. The survey found that the UDF enjoys strong popularity only in the Kochi region, and could face some competition in the Malabar and Tranvancore regions from the LDF. Chief Minister Oommen Chandy’s image is what may save the Congress the blushes in the state given that most of the respondents said they were satisfied with his administration. The survey found that he enjoyed greater support than the present UDF government and the Congress-led UPA government at the centre. The survey found that most of the respondents (45 percent) were still against the Congress coming to power in the Centre, which is marginally down from a month ago. The support for the Congress in the state has also resulted in the fact that Rahul Gandhi is the most popular choice as prime minister in the state and he leads the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate by quite a margin. The support for the Congress remains high despite the fact that a majority of the respondents felt that the UDF was more corrupt (39 percent). However, a majority also felt that the present state government was better for Kerala’s development but not by much. While it may not affect the upcoming general election results, the UDF may pay the price in the state elections. The survey also found that most of the respondents supported the UDF government in the steps it had undertaken against the LDF, including the Lavalin case against the CPM’s Pinaryi Vijayan and TP Chandrasekharan. Even the Kasturirangan report on the Western ghats has made no major impact on the poll fortunes of the UDF with the state government’s fire fighting measures possibly having paid dividends. A majority of the respondents (32 percent) said that they had no opinion on the matter. The election tracker found that the UDF enjoys support across the Muslim and Christian communities in the state as well as among male voters. However, the LDF enjoys marginally higher support among women and Hindus (44 percent versus UDF’s 31 percent).