Election tracker: Telangana decision won't save Cong in AP

In the state where Narendra Modi is no more than a bit player, in a state that gave the Congress the most number of Lok Sabha Parliamentarians in 2009, the move for a bifurcation of the state to create a separate state of Telangana was to have served up rich electoral dividends for the Congress. But, in a manner increasingly typical of the party, a series of goof-ups and bungled decisions, lack of forethought and too much politicking has led to this large state threatening to morph into one posing the most uncertainty for the Congress, which has ruled in the state Assembly for 15 years. When Parliament convenes in the first week of February, one of the bills most likely to be pushed through is the AP Reorganisation Bill for the creation of Telangana. Nevertheless, the Telangana imbroglio is nowhere near an end. [caption id=“attachment_1351627” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] AFP[/caption] The agitation for a unified state has been bitter, prolonged and has led to deep divisions in the Congress party — the Congress chief minister Kiran Kumar Reddy, it is widely believed, may break ranks from the party soon after the ongoing Assembly session; a clutch of Andhra Pradesh MPs from the Seemandhra region have threatened to resign; as in so many other states, the Congress finds its calculations gone horribly wrong. The Telangana Rashtra Samiti, the champion of the cause of Telangama and the ally the Congress relied heavily upon, has ended most likely to disappoint, according to the results of the Lokniti-IBN ELection Tracker survey. The TRS will win only four to eight seats, it is expected. TRS leader K Chandrasekhara Rao had reportedly promised to merge his party with the Congress before general elections, once Telangana is created. Not only is there no guarantee that such a promise will be fulfilled, but the TRS’s showing is also likely to fall short of expectation even in Telangana with its 17 LS seats. Seat projections show the YSR Congress — the breakaway faction of Congressmen who joined YSR Reddy’s son Jagan after the latter fell out with the Congress high command in the aftermath of his father’s sudden death — is ahead of the pack. Jagan will play a powerful role in the state, winning between 11 and 19 LS seats, up from his present strength of two MPs in Lok Sabha. The Telugudesam Party will follow with 9 to 15 seats and the Congress remains a distant third with five to 9 seats. For his part, Chief Minister Kiran Kumar Reddy has spent the last few weeks trying, however feebly, to keep the focus on development in a state where large regions have spent months in a ‘shutdown’. The State Investment Promotion Board chaired by the CM only last week okayed the investment of almost Rs 6,500 crore from six majors including PepsiCo and Cadbury, all looking to expand their interests in the state. Despite the show of good health, industry and investments in Andhra Pradesh have been crippled by the repeated agitations. The BJP has played its cards close to its chest, expressing its support for the statehood aspirations of the people of Telangana but sparing no occasion to make the point that the sentiments of the people of Seemandhra must be addressed too. The Congress, which made the promise of a state of Telangana nearly 10 years back, has been shown up for its internal rifts and hypocrisy, the BJP has said. BJP president Rajnath Singh recently asserted that the party would create Telangana if the BJP assumes power at the Centre. In keeping with his party’s stand on the issue, he said the BJP will rdaw up a simultaneous ‘Action Plan’ for proper resolution of the problems of the other areas of Andhra Pradesh. And, while the BJP may be a non-entity here, Modi is within calling distance of the TDP, a prospective NDA ally. Modi should be happy with the survey findings on TDP — he remains a winner even in a state where the BJP is not in the reckoning.