Election Tracker: Modi shines in SP backyard, saffron surge in UP

Samajwadi Party supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav should be a worried man. Just months away from the Lok Sabha elections, the inept handling of the recent Muzaffarnagar riots by the Uttar Pradesh government under his son and Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav has drawn stinging criticism. If that wasn’t enough the holding of the extravagant Saifai Mahotsav involving a host of Bollywood stars at a time when riot victims from a minority community were suffering in ill-equipped relief camps only hastened the plummeting of the party and the state government’s reputation. [caption id=“attachment_1355827” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]
(L) BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi speaks during a election campaign rally at Gorakhpur in Uttar Pradesh on Thursday; (R) BJP supporters at the Gorakhpur election campaign rally. PTI[/caption] Dead lotus may bloom again in Uttar Pradesh What the Muzaffarnagar riots did was to make the Bharatiya Janata Party’s position stronger in Uttar Pradesh compared to the last survey in July 2013. The total sample size for 2013 was 3,284 while it is 2,834 in January 2014. The survey discovered that if the Lok Sabha elections are held now, the BJP will get 38 percent of the vote share leaving the SP and Bahujan Samaj Party way behind with 17 percent each. The Congress will be tottering at 16 percent. The jump for the BJP from the July survey has been quick and high. In a July 2013 survey, the BJP got 27 percent of the vote share while the SP and BSP got 22 and 21 percent respectively. The Congress was at 16 percent even then. When the state with 80 Lok Sabha seats, the highest in the country, prefers to to be in their bag, it is for certain that the leaders and cadres of the saffron party will wait in enlivened anticipation for the survey findings to become a reality. Muzaffarnagar riots: a cauldron of repressed anger So high has been the anger against the Samajwadi Party for the riots that 45 percent of respondents in the January survey conducted by Lokniti-IBN National Tracker blamed the party ahead of the BJP with only 13 percent. What will alarm the SP top brass more is that 24 percent of the Muslim sample size of 1,805 are unhappy with the party while another 34 percent are displeased with the BJP. The loss of faith among the Muslim community at such a politically significant time will prove costly for the ruling party in the state. Brickbats both for the Centre and the state government are also in offer from the Muslim community for the insensitive handling of the Muzaffarnagar riots. A whopping 51 percent each among the Muslim respondents are dissatisfied with both the governments for their lapses. Perhaps because of the recency of the Muzaffarnagar riots the dissatisfaction with the Uttar Pradesh government has dramatically risen in the last six months. From 32 percent in 2013, it shot up to 41 percent in 2014, as per the survey reports. The satisfaction has also fallen a single percent from 49 to 48. The performance of Akhilesh Yadav has not given enough reason to enthuse the SP cadres as well. Although 50 percent of the respondents are happy with him, 40 percent are unhappy. Not surprisingly, six out of 10 respondents want the SP government to go if the Assembly polls are held now. In July 2013, the anti-incumbency was at 44 percent. Uttar Pradesh caught by Narendra Modi wave With the 2014 Lok Sabha polls closing in, Uttar Pradesh is increasingly swaying along with the Modi breeze. The BJP prime ministerial candidate has widened the gap with his immediate challenger Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi compared to the July 2013 survey. While today the figures stand at 35 percent for Modi, it is 12 percent for Rahul, 11 percent for Mayawati and 10 percent for Mulayam. The support for the Gujarat chief minister was at 20 percent, 9 percent for Rahul and 10 percent each for the SP and BSP chiefs in July last year. The survey found that when distributed zone-wise, Eastern Uttar Pradesh and Doab offered the highest support for Modi with 41 and 40 percent respectively. The Brahmins with 60 percent, Jats with 59 percent and Rajputs with 52 percent gave the Gujarat chief minister enough strength to go for his prime ministerial ambitions. As expected, the Muslims chipped in with the lowest support at 11 percent. Downward slide for UPA, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh Heightened focus on Uttar Pradesh has not helped the Congress to revive its dwindling fortunes in India’s largest state. The lacklustre performance of UPA 2 under Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has only made matters worse for the country’s oldest political outfit. The study revealed that 44 percent of the sample was unhappy with UPA 2. This number was 38 percent in July 2013. The satisfaction with UPA 2’s performance was at 32 percent in 2013 and 39 percent in 2014. For Singh, the statistics offered nothing to cheer for. Surrounded by allegations of rampant corruptions, policy paralysis, deficit economy and lack of accountability, it is no wonder that the dissatisfaction with the prime minister has gone up from 32 to 40 percent in six months. A colossal 61 percent is of the opinion that UPA 2 should not get a chance to govern after the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. BSP government was better This would be music to Mayawati’s ears. With a young chief minister at the helm, Uttar Pradesh had briefly sprung into an utopia after Akhilesh Yadav took over as the chief minister. There was a hope that the SP will emerge the state out of BSP’s alleged misrule but that dream seems to be shattering fast. Respondents numbering 42 percent said that the previous state government under BSP chief Mayawati was better than the present SP one. What will shock Akhilesh is that exactly half of the BSP mark—21 percent only—are in favour of his government. The liking for the BSP government was 29 percent in July 2013 while it was 26 percent for the SP’s. AAP impact in Uttar Pradesh The survey unveiled that the Aam Aadmi Party has made some kind of an impact in the state to begin with. Although 42 percent of the respondents want an AAP candidate to fight the parliamentary polls from their constituencies, only 25 percent are inclined to vote for the new party. The high point of AAP in the state is an anticipated direct face off between party leader Kumar Vishwas and Congress second-in-command Rahul Gandhi in Amethi. If that happens and if Vishwas wins, the battle will be chronicled as an epic in the times to come.