Election tracker: It’s Jaya all the way as DMK-Cong set for big dip

Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa can smile a bit wider. She is not only set to crush arch rival DMK in the 2014 general elections in a sweet revenge for 2009, she is also likely to emerge as a major player in the formation of the national government post the big event. Her popularity has been on the upswing for sometime now, in direct proportion to the decline of popular approval for the DMK-Congress combine. And yes, she faces no AAP threat like some of her counterparts across the country. According to a Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll involving a sample size of 909, if the elections are held this month, the AIADMK would secure between 15 and 23 seats, the DMK between 7 and 13 and the Congress between one and five. In 2009, the tally of the parties stood at 9, 18 and 8 respectively. According to the survey, the vote share of the DMK shrinks a massive seven percentage points compared to 2009 - from 25 to 18 - while that of the AIADMK goes up from 23 to 27. Interestingly, the Congress’ vote share goes up two percent from 15 to 17. The survey was conducted in early January. [caption id=“attachment_1351579” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] AFP[/caption] Give it to the Modi magic, the BJP registers a massive jump from two percent in 2009 to 10 percent in July 2013 - when a tracker poll was conducted - to 16 percent now. That, in fact, should be the biggest takeaway from the survey. Still a marginal player in Tamil Nadu, the party now gets a chance to build a solid base. The approval rating for Modi as the prime minister has gone up sharply between July 2013 and January 2014 - from nine percent to 17 percent. This could be the factor behind his party’s good showing in the survey. It is obvious he is getting new converts to the BJP in large numbers. Rahul Gandhi’s approval rating has improved from seven to 11 in the last six months but it does help his party in a great way. The current round of survey reveals satisfaction with her as chief minister. As many as 64 percent of respondents said they were happy with her performance. However, there are hints that voters in urban areas are a bit disappointed with her government. Twenty-seven of urban respondents said they were satisfied with her government while 31 percent said they found the earlier DMK government better. In rural areas, particularly among farmers and fishermen, she remains highly popular. [caption id=“attachment_1351585” align=“alignleft” width=“420”] Lokniti-IBN poll[/caption] The AAP is not a expected to be a even a marginal factor in the state. Less than half the respondents had heard of Arvind Kejriwal’s party, while 22 percent wanted it to contest Lok Sabha seats. Only 10 percent of respondents showed any interest in voting for the party.