Election Tracker: In Punjab, AAP could play spoiler at BJP party

In the 2009 election, the Congress had dominated in Punjab and, riding on a wave of anti-incumbency,the BJP-SAD alliance was expected to turn things in their favour. However, a new survey has found that the BJP-SAD alliance could be losing steam with the Congress gaining marginally, thanks to its timely alliance with the People’s Party of Punjab (PPP). [caption id=“attachment_1464407” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  The Badals are expected to remain dominant in Punjab. PTI[/caption] The BJP-SAD alliance had won 43 percent of the vote share in the 2009 election and was expected to rise to 45 percent in January this year, but the Lokniti, CSDS-IBN National Tracker Poll has found that it may be heading for only a marginal increase from the last election. The Congress is expecting to lose a significant vote share and could see it dip to 29 percent, but still a rise over what it was estimated to get in January. The biggest gainer could be the AAP which is expected to garner 14 percent of the voteshare. The rise of the AAP in the state can perhaps be attributed to the fact that both the other political alliances are seen as equally corrupt, despite their reasonably high popularity in the state. The survey also found that the new party enjoyed support across various groups but enjoyed relatively high support among the urban youth and other backward groups. The survey found that the BJP-SAD alliance could be benefiting from the high satisfaction level that the current state government still enjoys and the strong anti-incumbency against the central government. When it comes to prime ministerial candidates, the front runner in the state remains Narendra Modi but he has seen his lead steadily erode and the second most popular choice is Arvind Kejriwal. The popularity of the the AAP leader may indicate why the party may just pull off a few surprises in Punjab.