Election Tracker: a double anti-incumbency in Maharashtra

A massive double anti-incumbency against the UPA’s 10-year rule at the Centre and against the Congress-NCP government in Maharashtra since 1999, coupled with a rising wave of support for Narendra Modi in the state’s urban pockets could leave the UPA unable to garner a healthy number of Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra.

According to the Lokniti-IBN Election Tracker survey, the Congress-NCP’s combined voteshare is set to dip from 39 percent in the 2009 election to 35 percent.

While the Bharatiya Janata Party-Shiv Sena-Republican Party of India (A) voteshare is estimated to grow from 35 percent to 44 percent, a break-up of each party’s share of votes polled shows that fewer people are inclined to vote for the Shiv Sena now than during a survey in July 2013 – its voteshare is estimated to dip from 8 percent to 6 percent. It is the BJP that has seen a sharp rise in popularity, up nine percentage points to 36 percent.

That inclination towards the BJP appears fuelled by a Narendra Modi wave visible at least in parts of Maharashtra, possibly backed by a strong and politically active Gujarati population in urban Maharashtra. From 21 percent of those surveyed stating their preference for Modi as prime minister during a survey in July 2013, the percentage of those supporting the Gujarat CM for the top job of the country has grown to 40 percent now – preference for Rahul Gandhi as PM remains unchanged at 14 percent.

The Maharashtra Navnirman Sena will be doing some navel-gazing – the survey estimates that if the general election is held now, the MNS voteshare will be a mere two percent of polled votes, down from four percent in the 2009 election. Unlikely as it may be, whispers of the ‘grand alliance’ or the ‘mahayuti’ of the BJP-Shiv Sena-Republican Party of India (A) expanding to include the MNS have never really died down. But who the MNS allies with may eventually be an inconsequential sub plot with significance only for the Maharashtra Assembly elections that will follow in October.

What has led the Congress to find its support eroded in a state it has ruled with allies for almost 15 years? It is not just the multiplicity of scams – the majority of those polled had not even heard of the Adarsh scam. The performance of the state and the Central governments on issues ranging from the agrarian crisis to statehood for Vidarbha appear to have not gone down well with the electorate.

The anti-incumbency is quite clear from the survey results: From 39 percent in July 2013, only 25 percent of those surveyed now said the UPA government can be given another chance. From 60 percent in July 2013, only 46 percent now say they are satisfied with the performance of Manmohan Singh as prime minister. From 36 percent, only 26 percent now say the Congress-NCP government in Maharashtra can be given another chance.