Election Tracker: 3 days from poll, Modi ahead of Rahul & Co

The endgame is nigh. With the first of the general election dates just three days away, the last of the pre-poll opinion surveys is now in, and the results shows the chaiwala scoring over the dynast. The Lokniti-IBN National Pre-Poll Survey has put final numbers to the national vote shares of the BJP-led NDA alliance and the Congress-led UPA and these show the former leading with 38 percent and the latter trailing 10 points behind with 28 percent. If the voting intentions indicated by the 20,957 electors polled in this survey hold till 16 May, when the actual results will be announced, Narendra Modi should be the next PM, and Rahul Gandhi will be the also-ran. [caption id=“attachment_1466345” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  The clash of titans.[/caption] The Methodology The survey was conducted in 21 states by Lokniti, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi, between 18-25 March 2014. Covering 301 randomly selected parliamentary constituencies across 1,340 locations, the survey had a sample size of 20,957. In each state, the parliamentary constituencies and the assembly segment/segments within were randomly selected using the Probability Proportionate to Size sampling method. The interviews of the respondents were conducted face to face using a standard structured questionnaire. The voting questions were asked using a dummy ballot paper and dummy ballot box to ensure secrecy. The total of 20,957 completed interviews were not uniformly spread in all the 21 states where the survey was conducted. The sample was bigger in big states like Uttar Pradesh (2,633), Maharashtra (1,662), Andhra Pradesh (1,308), West Bengal (1,440), Bihar (1,557), Madhya Pradesh (1,121) compared to some smaller states like Himachal Pradesh (299), Uttarakhand (344), Haryana (702), Chhattisgarh (529) and Assam (798). It must be noted, however, that in Kerala the achieved sample size of 607 was less than expected. Prime Minister in Waiting: Narendra Modi or Rahul Gandhi? More than the Congress-BJP, NDA-UPA contests, the campaigns were spiced up by comparisons between BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi and Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi. From Modi’s Shehzada jibes to Rahul’s balloon hyperboles, the two have set the stage for a battle royale while leading the BJP and the Congress respectively. Now with the voting beginning on 7 April, the final survey discovered that Modi is well ahead of Rahul as the country’s prime ministerial choice. Both Modi and Rahul maintained their trends in the surveys of January and March. While Modi got support of 34 percent of pan-India respondents, Rahul lags behind by more than half at 15 percent. Barring minorities Muslims and Christians, the BJP prime ministerial candidate has all-pervading support from all communities to lead the country. The support for Modi declined to 1o percent in March from 11 percent in March within the Muslim community. Similarly, among Christians, the support for Modi shrank 2 percent to 14 percent from the last poll. In both these communities, Rahul went up the graph between January and March. The Congress second-in-command is doing well among Christians as he jumped from 23 to 31 percent in three months. His support among Muslims went up from 31 to 32 percent. When it comes to upper caste, OBC, SC, ST and Sikh votes, India clearly wants Modi to take charge of South Block. While the upper caste voter base for Modi expanded from 48 to 50 percent, it remained stagnant for Rahul at 11 percent. In the OBC section, Rahul slipped from 12 to 11 percent but Modi remained steady at 39 percent. The survey found that SC and ST respondents increased their vote share by 1 percent for Modi but did the opposite for Rahul. Another finding of the survey was that the BJP prime ministerial candidate has penetrated rural India much more than the Congress no. 2. Modi has the support of 34 percent voters from rural India against Rahul’s 14 percent. In this scenario, it may be safely assumed that Modi’s relentless campaigns in far-flung areas of the country, be it the deserts of Jaisalmer or the hills of Pasighat, have shown some positive results. The Congress leader improved his position from 16 to 20 percent in urban India but it is still way behind the 36 percent figure of the Gujarat chief minister. The humiliation of Rahul looks imminent as the survey revealed that the five zones that India was divided into for purpose of the study gives an almost unbeatable lead for Modi. Particularly, in Central India the Congress leader stood trounced at 17 percent against Modi’s 47 percent. National Political Pulse: Congress vs BJP, UPA vs NDA According to estimates given in the Lokniti-IBN National Pre-Poll Survey, the Congress-led is obviously on the way out, but the figures also present some interesting features. The vote estimates in the March survey gave Congress 25 percent while its allies got 3 percent of it. The BJP won 35 percent and its allies 3 percent. What makes these figures fascinating is the vote share for the predominantly Uttar Pradesh outfits – Bahujan Samaj Party and Samajwadi Party. Both the parties have registered a one percent rise in vote share from 3 to 4 percent. An increased kitty for these regional parties may make things a little difficult for the BJP as these parties are often considered way closer to the Congress. During UPA’s two tenures so far, the SP and BSP have performed the crucial role of a life support system for the Central government. When the figures are placed in the larger context of UPA and NDA, the latter is maintaining a neat lead. The March figures gave NDA 38 percent of India’s vote share while UPA received 28 percent. The key to the next Lok Sabha polls could well be the voting pattern in rural India. The survey discovered that within two months the BJP made a quantum leap from 25 to 35 percent when the vote share is taken into account. In the same period, the Congress slipped from 26 to 24 percent. The BJP also consolidated its position in urban India, claiming 36 percent vote share in March compared to 33 percent in January. The Congress fell to 26 from 30 percent within a span of two surveys. When the data are studied based on the economic status of the respondents, the BJP is leading the Congress in all the segments. The survey is an apparent indication that the image of the Congress as pro-poor is fast dropping. Significantly, among the lower classes, the BJP got 35 percent while Congress received 26 percent. Although the vote share for BJP fell from 32 to 30 percent among the poor, it is still ahead of Congress. Despite all the analysis done above, there is one caveat that looms large and can potentially make these estimates go haywire. In many of the states covered by this survey there were many respondents who were either confused or did not want to reveal their voting preference. The trend is more visible in smaller states like Uttarakhand and Chhattisgarh but an 8 percent undecided electorate in Uttar Pradesh can actually turn the tables. Another key state that has a big percentage of undecided voters is Maharashtra at 19 percent. The state has 48 Lok Sabha seats, the second largest after Uttar Pradesh. Predictions about this segment of voters are futile as their choices will be known only from the exit polls or the actual day of counting. What made the UPA crumble As per the survey, the only solace that the UPA can cling to is that dissatisfaction levels have decreased since January, but it still remains quite high. The little boost may be attributed to tribals and Muslims, as the figures climbed from 6 to 19 and from 6 to 29 percent respectively. This could, however, be the result of some degree of polarisation towards the closing stages of the poll. Notwithstanding the ’likes’ that it received, the chances of the UPA getting a third term looks very slim. The figures for not allowing the UPA another stint at the Centre are overwhelmingly high at 53 percent compared to 25 percent who think it deserves another opportunity. The anti-UPA sentiment was found to be strongest in North and West India where it was recorded at 55 and 57 percent respectively. From the estimates made in the table below it can be inferred that the Modi wave is not only blowing in the Gujarat and Rajasthan belts but also in the Gangetic plains of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Different combinations were tried out to fix the accountability for the approaching fall of the UPA but these figures won’t really change its fortunes on the ground.