Election scenarios, playing the ‘what if’ game

The assembly poll results today will make a deep impact on national politics. They may lead to realignment of forces both at the Centre and the states. They will also decide which direction the Left takes from now. Here’s a short analysis of possible scenarios . [caption id=“attachment_9060” align=“alignleft” width=“380” caption=“A man sits in a rickshaw decorated with Trinamool Congress placards in Kolkata. TMC head Mamata Banerjee might unseat the world’s longest-serving, democratically-elected communist government in West Bengal. Rupak De Chowdhuri/Reuters”] [/caption] West Bengal Seats: 294 Scenarios: 1) Trinamool Congress wins majority on its own: Mamata may keep the Congress out of the government. This will be serious loss of face for the latter and add to tension between the two at the Centre. It will have repercussion on the UPA government. 2) Congress puts up a good show and Trinamool falters: Congress gets a say in government formation. It gives the party a lever to keep Mamata’s members in check at the Centre. 3) The Left puts up an unexpected good show: Trinamool Congress loses momentum. Status quo at the Centre. Congress gets closer to the Left. Tamil Nadu Seats: 234 1) AIADMK-led alliance wins: DMK abandons any idea of moving out of the UPA. Loses bargaining strength with the Centre. DMDK plays a major role. 2) DMK wins: Party in no position to form government on its own, thus depends on the Congress support. Congress gets an upper hand at the Centre. 3) Congress fares badly: Not much difference to the present equation. 4) Hung house: Congress plays the hardball, bargains for higher seats. May back either of the top parties. Kerala Seats: 140 Scenarios: 1) LDF wins: Left gets a breath of life. With the scene in West Bengal gloomy, a loss in Kerala will be disastrous for its future. 2) UDF wins: Congress forms government, settles score with the Left. Factionalism erupts in the Left combine. Implosion expected Assam Seats: 126 Scenarios 1) Congress wins: Delivers a blow to the AGP-BJP alliance, which had made corruption and price rise a big issue. A face-saver for the Congress at the Centre. 2) AGP-BJP alliance wins: Of particular importance to AGP, which is losing ground fast. BJP gets a stronger foothold in the state. Win not likely to have much impact in Delhi. If Congress fares well in all the states, it will be a morale-booster for the party. It affirms the party’s pan-Indian presence. Rahul Gandhi gets the credit for success. Main opposition BJP does not have much at stake in the southern states but will look carefully at the evolving situation in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal. The Left has a lot stake. Loss in West Bengal and Kerala will make the party irrelevant in national politics.