DMK pullout: Why the UPA won't go for early polls

The countdown for the next general elections began some time back, but the real counting to zero date has begun just now.

The old man of the DMK, Chief Minister M Karunanidhi, has worked himself into a fit and withdrawn his ministers from the UPA cabinet. Mulayam Singh is pissed off with the Congress’s Beni Prasad Varma, and his son has anyway distributed his laptops in advance.

Together, the DMK and the Samajwadi Party—with 40 MPs between them—can force an early election, but don’t count on it.

The problem with the early elections scenario is that the Congress and the BJP are not quite ready for it. At least not yet.

The Congress would prefer to get the budget session and the Karnataka elections over with, and may not mind elections in October this year. This way it hopes to have Karnataka under its belt, and will look to elections with greater hope.

Moreover, the Congress has several unsorted political issues in Andhra Pradesh (Telangana), West Bengal, and elsewhere, for which it needs more time.

As for the BJP, the anointment of Narendra Modi as the standard bearer is almost done, but the party is as yet not fully prepared for elections. Moreover, the party may prefer a date after the Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Delhi elections are over – where it hopes to do well. An early elections will queer the pitch and not give Modi enough time to consolidate his presence in the party.

As for the rest of the Lok Sabha – the parties that are clearly in favour of early elections would be the Trinamool Congress, the AIADMK and Mulayam Singh’s Samajwadi Party.

Ordinary MPs in most parties would prefer to avoid going to the polls right now, where the national mood appears to be shifting, but outcomes look unpredictable.

Ranged against the possibility of an immediate poll would be Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party, which cannot hope to recoup its 2012 election  losses so soon, and the DMK, which cannot expect to gain too much right now even if it looks like making a point with the Sri Lankan Tamils issue. The fact is the Tamils issue has never been a vote winner in the state, despite its large emotive appeal for many political parties. In any event, CM Jayalalithaa has already staked out a position on this issue, and this is why Karunanidhi can’t gain much from it even after a pullout.

The Left parties believe they can do quite well in Kerala, especially over the Italian marines issue. Last year, the Left got ousted from power by only one seat, but in West Bengal they can’t expect to make big gains even though Didi’s halo has lost a lot of its lustre.

Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United), fresh from its Adhikar rally, may not have a strong view one way or the other, nor would Biju Janata Dal’s Naveen Patnaik.

While nobody can rule out an accidental slide into polls right now if any of the big parties makes a mistake—the DMK stretching things a bit too far, or the Congress failing to mollify Mulayam Singh by offering Beni Prasad Verma’s head or apology—the chances ate 60:40 that the DMK-created crisis can blow over in the next few days.

But there is little doubt, the poll pulse is quickening. The only question is whether a poll will be precipitated by accident, or will come early by design.