 "Despite third front promise, Jaya's campaign leaves options open")
By sparing the BJP and launching a broadside against the Congress at her campaign-launch speech on Monday, Tamil Nadu chief minister J Jayalalithaa has made it abundantly clear once again that she would prefer to keep her national options open.
The two highlights that characterised Jaya’s speech at the public meeting that kicked off the AIADMK’s Lok Sabha election-campaign, were her intention to play a leading role at the Centre, and ousting the Congress-led UPA. She even likened the situation to the pre-independence India when people wanted the British out.
The comparison also touched upon how both the British and the UPA had compromised interests of the country. “People then wanted to throw out the British who had looted India. Now, people want to boot out the Congress-led central government that has wrecked the country by its corrupt and inept rule.” The Telegraph reported. On her clear intentions of staking a claim for national leadership, Times of India reported: “if given an opportunity, she would “lead India to a path of peace, prosperity and growth.”
Throughout her speech she hit out at the Congress and its Tamil Nadu partner DMK, while being evidently silent on the BJP or Narendra Modi was unmissable. Although ultimately the BJP or a BJP-led front will be one of her rivals at the hustings, it didn’t seem to matter to her because of the post-poll possibilities. Without being explicit, Jaya’s speech also made it abundantly clear that she is open to the idea of being the prime minister. Her followers, who gathered in huge numbers at the campaign venue, seemed to have already chosen her for the national role.
The public meeting in Kancheepuram also showed how Jaya leveraged her first mover advantage. She has an alliance in place, candidates in all the constituencies - including the ones that will go to the CPM and the CPI, and a campaign schedule for half of them. This headstart will be of tremendous advantage because all that the opposition parties can do now is to catch up. Unfortunately, they are far from finding the right ally, let alone beginning the campaign.
The principal opposition party, the DMK, is yet to find a suitable ally. It has been trying hard to get Vijayakanth’s party DMDK on its side, but the actor-turned-politician is more inclined towards the BJP, perhaps because the odds of the party coming closer to power are higher than that of the Congress. Vijayakanth has been very close to a section of the Congress leaders in the state and should have been its natural ally.
If the DMDK finally goes with the BJP, which is highly likely, the DMK will be in a spot because it didn’t want to align with the Congress for the fear of a backlash for the latter’s stand on Sri Lankan Tamils. Although the state leaders of the Congress have made the right noises, the central leadership more or less chose to side with the island nation citing geo-political reasons. The DMK snapped ties with the Congress on the Sri Lankan issue and hence it cannot go back without losing face. Without the Congress or DMDK, the DMK will be practically ally-less and extremely vulnerable.
What will be equally worrying for the DMK is the speculation of a grand alliance of all the other major parties and the BJP. It’s been rumoured that talks are on among the BJP, DMDK, PMK and MDMK. Together they can offer a good fight to the formidable AIADMK front. Opinion polls have indicated a significance rise in the BJP’s vote-share in the state. With DMDK, PMK and the MDMK together contributing about 20 plus percent, it might turn out to be a serious three-cornered contest. In such a situation, the Congress will be of no consequence. Based on the state-of-play today, to avoid a suicidal situation, the DMK will have to go with the Congress.
While the other parties make up their minds, Jaya would have marched on considerably. She has already stolen the thunder and has made her national intentions clear. The idea of her leading India, which is emotionally and strategically beneficial for Tamil Nadu, would have been considerably amplified by the time the rivals hit the campaign. In fact, they have a long way to go, and catching up with Jayalalithaa, in terms of the campaign, is rather impossible.
Look at these options: Jaya could be the prime minister if the BJP and allies don’t get adequate numbers or she could be an influential player in the NDA government if the BJP and its allies manage to get closer to the numbers required. Alternatively, she can have the same roles, if the third-front is in similar situations.