Despite sabotage fears, rise in votes gives BJP hope in MP

The dramatic rise in the polling figures during the final phase has aroused expectations in the BJP camp in Madhya Pradesh. Vidisha, the key constituency that went to poll on 24 April saw a staggering 20.54 per cent rise in voting compared to 2009 General Elections. The leader of the opposition in Lok Sabha, Sushma Swaraj is defending her seat against a reinforced Congress which is also banking on the voter’s renewed enthusiasm. In 2009 the Congress had thrown in the towel during nomination when Rajkumar Patel failed to present the necessary documents. With a voter turnout of 45.09 per cent Swaraj had recorded a 3,89,844-vote triumph. This year Patel did join the fray only to pull out at the last minute in favour of Laxman Singh, the official nominee of the Congress. Even with a high voting percentage of over 65.63 Swaraj can’t be sure of a larger margin of victory. [caption id=“attachment_1504905” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Representational image. PTI[/caption] In the November assembly elections the eight segments of the Vidisha parliamentary constituency recorded an overall gain 1,64,748 votes for the BJP with a much higher turnout of over 70 percent. The Congress could still win three of the eight segments. The equations have changed during the general elections with reports of sabotage from both the Congress and BJP camps. While the Congress camp failed to get the cooperation from Pratap Bhanu Sharma former MP from Vidisha the BJP was handicapped by the indifference of former finance minister Raghavji who represented the Vidisha assembly seat for over ten years. The Nimar-Malwa belt is largely fertile agrarian stretch. This year’s unseasonal rain and hail damage turned into a political issue for both parties. The high voter turnout in the region is being interpreted by both camps to suit their political convenience. Shivraj Singh, a big time farmer, was quick to sense the political consequences of the natural calamity and blamed the Centre for non-cooperation while turning visits to farmers into photo opportunities. Standing crops in 47 out 51 districts were affected by heavy rains and hail stones. The ruling party’s strategy was to announce a quick assistance of Rs 2000 crore to the farmers to win them over while shifting the blame at the Centre. The Congress debunked the plan by pointing out that the farmers were not compensated even for the heavy losses when winter crops were damaged before the assembly election. The central team that visited the affected areas in Nimar and Malwa foiled the state government’s plans to humour the farmer by announcing compensation packages and buying out the affected crops at a decent price. With the election code coming into force the state government wasn’t able to do much about it. The BJP is now unable to take the farmers’ support for granted. The first phase witnessed a high turnout of over 64 per cent in the nine seats of Mahakoshal-Vindhya region. Some seats like Chhindwara almost touched 70 per cent. The voter’s response was lukewarm in the second phase that covered the ten seats in the Gwalior- Chambal region. The percentage dropped to just over 55 alarming the BJP which mobilised its resources to bring the voter to the polling booth in the third phase. The result was dramatic. All the constituencies recorded a high turnout. Most pollsters expect this to favour the BJP even though traditionally high turnouts point to a vote against incumbency. The Congress already held six of the ten seats in the region. However, infighting dogs both parties. The Congress failed to get the desired support from the sitting MP Basori Singh who was denied ticket in Mandla. The party candidate from Damoh Mahendra Pratap Singh also complained of sabotage by district party officials. In Bhopal PC Sharma failed to get the support of Arif Aqueel the strong minority leader. In Betul the party replaced its candidate Rahul Chouhan to accommodate Ajay Shah who defected to the party from BJP. Chauhan and his Korku tribe stayed away from campaign. Gajendra Singh Rajukhedi was denied ticket from Dhar and was not seen campaigning for Umang Singhar who also faced a challenge from his cousin Dr Hemlata Dhand contesting on AAP ticket. The BJP has its worries about candidates in Bhind, Damoh, Khajuraho, Mandsaur, Hoshangabad and Dhar. At Bhind and Hoshangabad the party fielded candidates who were lured into the party from the Congress on the election eve antagonising the original aspirants. Elsewhere the resistance was due to candidates being perceived as outsiders.