Delhi, MP, Rajasthan results: Time for Cong to make panic calls to ex-allies?

You have to have a gut made from a very resilient variety of steel to turn up as a panelist in a television debate today and attempt defending the Congress. So one has to give Shashi Tharoor brownie points for that. However, except that bit, Congress and Tharoor’s valorous declarations at this point of time have started sounding empty, and on occasions, even adamant. In a television discussion hosted by NDTV and attended by Tharoor, Nirmala Seetharaman and academician-turned-politician Atishi from AAP, Congress’ desperation seemed fairly evident in Tharoor’s continued attempts to keep smiling and emphasise the fact that the state assembly results have no bearing on the general elections. Holding on to every remaining straw that is reassuring for the Congress now, Tharoor pointed out, “In 2003, the BJP did fabulously in most states. So much so that they preponed the polls that time and they were wiped out nationally.” What Tharoor said is partially true. And BJP representative Nirmala Seetharaman too agreed to his explanation. However, what he missed out in dissociating the state polls from a the national big picture is the fact that, the state polls this year might have been steered by a reverse trend of sorts. Like it was discussed in Firstpost and elsewhere, the Congress units in the states this time are not just up against their local issues, but had to fight the overwhelming anti-incumbency and anti-Congress sentiment that seems to have been sparked off by the politics of the party at the Centre. [caption id=“attachment_1273915” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Agencies.[/caption] The issues that the opposition, led by Modi in other states and AAP in Delhi, continually harped on were not always ones specific to the state. From dynastic politics, to Coalgate, Vadra-gate scams and the party’s conflicted ‘secularism’ agenda - the oppositions’ poll campaign gave immense weight to issues that have the potential to dictate the national political trends. Then again, the Congress’ crushing defeat in Delhi and Sheila Dikshit’s resignation is a statement on both the Congress’ fortunes and their political will - a statement that symbolically and in debates of practicality alike, will be exploited to bits by the Opposition in whisking up support in their favour. If Delhi has discredited Sheila Dikshit’s government in Congress, the nation has no reason to give Manmohan Singh’s UPA another chance. It is the same anti-Congress dialogue started by the BJP that seems to have attributed to the ‘sweep’ that has felled the Congress in these four states. So Tharoor might want to extract reassurance from the usual discrepancies in polling patterns in state-national elections, but the results this time are clear indicators that there is very little ground on which he could do that. Possibly, though the party might not admit it in public addresses, the Congress has already started counting the new odds that the state polls have thrown up. And in that same context, while Tharoor toned down his defence of the Congress’ poll promise, he repeatedly emphasized the fact that the national polls is not a Congress-BJP two way battle and regional players will make a lot of difference in all states. If the existing poll and ally math is anything to go by, then Tharoor’s logic might run into some difficulties there too. The parties most significant allies in the past - the DMK in Tamil Nadu, Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh, Trinamool Congress in West Bengal - have recently turned their heat on the party, with DMK and TMC even quitting the alliance. Nirmala Seetharaman, expectedly, plugged in Narendra Modi and before giving the states any credit, said that the BJP is reaping rich benefits from the efforts of the party’s Prime Ministerial candidate. While that might not be entirely true and Sitharaman’s other confession, that the party has drummed up a strong anti-Congress buzz, a more logical explanation, Tharoor’s bravery might still ring empty. The only party that the Congress can place its hope on for an assured ally - the Samajwadi Party - is itself in doldrums following the Muzaffarnagar riots and if the ‘Modi wave’ myth indeed turns into a reality, there is little hope that the Congress will clinch that one either. Also, in the blame game following the riots, the Congress-SP engaged in an unhealthy bout of mudslinging at each other. The issues that the party has with its other prominent allies too are ones where a compromise is neither easy, nor without high stakes of loss. Mamata Banerjee walked out of the alliance demanding a roll back in diesel and petrol prices - something the Congress is in no position to work out a compromise on. On the other hand, DMK walked out seeking a strong anti-Sri Lanka government stand in the United Nations - a foreign policy decision that can’t be taken in a hurry to negotiate an alliance in India. Both these issues are again big voting planks for the said parties in their own states so they will not take a step back on them easily. “The BJP will consolidate the anti-Congress-ism that has taken the country over,” warned Seetharaman. Unless, the Congress is willing to make some risky compromises, the Assembly polls this year might well be a template for the general elections 2014. And while Tharoor disagreed, that is ‘apocalyptic’ news for the Congress.