 "Delhi exit polls 2015: It's unanimous, all polls say AAP has overcome Modi wave")
8.53 pm: It’s unanimous, Kejriwal, AAP have withstood the Modi wave And there you have it folks. Unless every single exit poll gets it wrong, we are going to see an AAP government in Delhi. All we are left with now, is various political party representatives shouting at each other on every television channel. But what shouts loudest, are the numbers. Here they are, all consolidated: And now, in the words of every BJP spokesman now on prime time tv, all we can do is ‘wait for Tuesday’. AAP is clearly elated with the findings, but are also preferring to adopt a more cautious wait and see approach. No one is celebrating yet. The new topic of debate: Who will take responsibility if the BJP does lose? Narendra Modi, Amit Shah or Kiran Bedi? All bets are on Bedi, who has already said that she will accept full responsibility, no matter what the verdict. 8.14 pm: C-voter, ABP-Nielsen also confirms early exit poll numbers, give AAP 35 - 43 seats The C-Voter poll is also giving AAP a majority. In terms of seats it is showing 35 - 43 for AAP, 25-33 for BJP and 0-2 for Congress. The ABP News-Nielsen final exit poll predicts majority for 43 seats. The BJP is likely to get 26 seats and the Congress 1 seat. 8.08 pm: Final India Today-Cicero poll gives AAP 38-46 seats Final exit poll numbers from India Today - Cicero have shown that AAP has widened its lead over the BJP. Remember these exit polls are factoring in the final three hours of polling. It is predicting 42 percent for AAP, 36 percent for BJP and a mere 15 percent for Congress. In terms of seatshare, this is showing 38 - 46 seats for AAP, 19 - 27 for the BJP and 3 - 5 seats for the Congress. The BJP’s Sambit Patra has said that although that it would be most prudent to wait and see, the party clearly needs to ‘introspect’. is this an admission of defeat? The BJP doesn’t seem to be fighting the numbers overmuch. 8.00 pm: Finally, a poll that gives BJP a victory Finally some good news for the BJP. The little known Datamineria has predicted 35 seats for the BJP, 31 for AAP and 4 with Congress. It looks like we have a new winner for the outlier stakes, folks. 7.37 pm: Elated Yogendra Yadav predicts 2/3rd majority for AAP
As exit polls seem to tumble over each other to predict an AAP victory in Delhi, its leaders are clearly confident.
Yogendra Yadav, who predicted that AAP would get 51 seats in an internal survey he carried out of the Delhi polls, says that they are actually headed for a bigger victory. “We are ahead but by a much bigger margin. My sense is that we are headed for a 2/3 majority. We are looking at 50 plus seats. It will be a landslide victory”, he told CNN-IBN.
7.34 pm: Today’s Chanakya also gives AAP 48 seats The Today’s Chanakya exit poll which got both the 2014 Lok Sabha elections and the 2013 Delhi assembly elections right, has predicted a massive 48 seats for AAP. The BJP is predicted to get 22 seats, while the Congress is going to score, what they call in cricket terms, a duck. So are we going to see a Kejriwal CM, Modi PM situation in Delhi? Looks like it. 7.26 pm: Exit polls show Kejriwal set to be CM Here is a data round up of all the exit poll predictions as of 3pm. Very good news if you are an AAP supporter. But remember, the final three hours of voting have not been factored in, and these numbers are likely to radically change. 7.00 pm: Axis exit poll says AAP will get 53 seats The Axis exit poll seems to have thrown all caution to the winds. it has predicted a massive 53 seats for AAP, to the 17 by the BJP. The Congress, will only manage 0-2 seats. The Axis poll is clearly the outlier here. Will it get it horribly wrong, or will it be the only one that gets the numbers right? We may get a better idea from the updated exit polls, which will factor in the last three hours of polling and which are expected to be released by 8pm. 6.56 pm: More good news for AAP from News Nation exit poll If ABP-Nielsen gives AAP reason to celebrate then News Nation should send them over the edge in delirious happiness. The exit polling as of 3pm has given AAP a massive 39-43 seats, to the BJP’s 25 - 29 seats. The Congress, which really has become the ‘also ran’ of this election is predicted to win just 1 to 3 seats. [caption id=“attachment_2085783” align=“alignnone” width=“380”]
Good news for Kejriwal: PTI[/caption] 6.50 pm: Has AAP emerged as a local powerhouse in Delhi? If the numbers are right, does this mean that AAP has emerged as a Delhi local powerhouse? The Headlines Today panel is making a comparison to the Shiv Sena in Delhi, which until late last year was always recognised by the BJP as being the senior poll partner. Does this explain the Kejriwal CM, Modi PM attitude that seems to be prevalent in Delhi? Firstpost editor Sandipan Sharma called this the desire of the voter to have a ladoo in both their hands.
He wrote
: The noise in the media and the bytes from politicians may delude us into believing that the Delhi election is a contest between Modi and Kejriwal. But if you go out in the streets, it would be clear that the Delhi voters want ladoo in both hands. Delhi isn’t India; it is a city state. The problems people face here are related to their day-to-day life. Water, electricity, hospitals, traffic, schools and thugs in uniform seeking bribes and hafta are their major concerns. While choosing a chief minister, they are looking at somebody who has solutions to these problems; somebody who can make their life better. In contrast, when they voted for Modi, voters were looking for a PM who would ensure vikas, get foreign investments, tame hostile neighbours and get rid of the corrupt and incompetent Congress misrule. It is another matter that Modi volunteered to pick up the broom; but in their minds voters had assigned that task to the jhadoo party. If you look at the 2013 election and the ongoing Delhi polls, the pattern becomes clear. Back then nearly a third of Delhi voters were with the BJP; in this election too the saffron vote share is likely to be around 35 per cent according to opinion polls. If the opinion polls have got it right, some of the additional 13 percent people who voted for Modi in the Lok Sabha polls are now thinking of giving the Kejriwal model a chance because they find him more suitable for the CM’s job. 6.42 pm: ABP-Nielsen says AAP will win 39 seats The ABP poll has shown a much more comfortable victory for AAP. Its own numbers as of 3pm show that AAP has a voteshare percentage of 37 percent to the 32 percent of the BJP. The Congress is down to 19 percent. In terms of seats, ABP-Nielsen has predicted 39 seats for AAP, 28 seats for the BJP and 3 for Congress. 6.39 pm: C-Voter shows BJP - AAP are neck and neck The C-voter exit poll as of 3pm shows that this election is literally getting too close to call. AAP is in the lead with an estimated 42 percent of the vote share, but the BJP is snapping at its heels with 40 percent of the voteshare. In terms of projected seatshare, the Cicero poll is giving AAP 35 - 43 seats, the BJP 23 - 29 and Congress 3-5 seats. The Congress is a distant third with a projected 11 percent of the voteshare. 6.32 pm: India Today- Cicero poll shows BJP is closing the gap The India Today - Cicero Exit poll as of 3pm has seen AAP with 41 percent of the voteshare, BJP witn 37 percent, and 15 percent for the Congress. This is a significant improvement on initial projections on the BJP performance. However there has been unprecedented voter turnout in Delhi, so these numbers could be very far from the final numbers. It all depends on who the final surge of voters picked. The Headlines Today team will give an updated exit polls at 8pm. 6.30 pm: Has BJP made a comeback or will AAP take Delhi? Much ado has been made of the opinion polls coming out of Delhi which have indicated that the Modi wave may have stopped short in the National Capital region. A number of key opinion polls, including those conducted by ABP-Nielsen, IMRB- The Week, Cfore - Hindustan Times and India Today - Cicero. [caption id=“attachment_2085741” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]
Who has Delhi picked this election? PTI[/caption] Of the eight pollsters, six are fairly well known, while two others are relatively unknown. They are Nielsen (which did a survey for ABP News), IMRB (The Week), Cfore (Hindustan Times), TNS (Economic Times), Cicero (India Today), CVoter, 5Forty3, and an relatively unknown data analytics firm called Data Mineria. The outlier poll, which gave AAP a huge win in the range of 38-46 seats, is Cicero, followed by TNS (36-40), and Nielsen (35). HT-Cfore, as we noted before, gave both parties seats in the range of 31-36 seats. In other words, either of them could win or ensure a draw. The pollsters who give the BJP a win are 5Forty3, which gives the BJP a clean 40 seats (but nowhere near Amit Shah’s targeted two-thirds majority) and is clearly the outlier, followed by CVoter (37), and IMRB and Data Mineria (both 36). Thirty-five is the half-way mark, and 36 is the number needed by a party to be in a majority in the 70-member Delhi assembly. Here is a look at voteshare predicted in all the opinion polls so far: So will the exit polls confirm these numbers, or will we see something radically different? Stay tuned!