Decoding Jharkhand results: BJP gameplan worked, Congress on way out

Jharkhand has finally voted for political stability and it is good news for the state. Nine governments and five chief ministers, including an Independent in the top job for over two years, in the last 14 years do not make for a pretty picture. A clear majority for the BJP-led alliance would end the long era of uncertainty. The results show that the Modi magic is still strong enough to swing votes in favour of the BJP and the party has not lost the momentum that saw it perform exceptionally well in the May general elections. The factors that have been at work for BJP’s success in all other assembly elections - too many similar looking parties jostling for power in limited space; competitors divided within; rivals largely discredited in public perception; and a diligent Sangh Parivar doing ground work to mobilize grassroots support – were present in Jharkhand too. The only problem was the perceived strong loyalty of the several tribal groups to particular parties which threw up hung verdicts. The question before the election was: will they look at the larger picture and dump parties with no promise? They did. [caption id=“attachment_2012789” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] BJP activists celebrate the victory in Jharkhand. PTI image[/caption] The BJP’s victory in assembly elections across the country is making it clear that the theory of caste and community vote banks is all bunkum. Given a better choice, in terms of parties, candidates and assurances, voters will not hesitate to take risks. That the voters were ready for change was clear when the party won 12 of the 14 seats here in the parliamentary polls, with a vote share of 40.1 percent. But some party had to take advantage of the change of mood. With the momentum on its side the BJP was the best placed for it. It promised stability, which no other party did or was in no position to be convincing about. People believed it. The Congress is getting more and more marginalized in the country. The results drive home the message once more. The script of its failure is the same as in other states: it lost its popular base to a strong regional party (JMM in this case) and is clueless how to rebuild. Also was exposed its inability to think of new messages and ideas to connect with people. It has proved inept at forming coalitions by making pragmatic compromises at the state level. In any case, coalitions are not a viable, long-term option. Given the growth need of all parties, competition and conflict among coalition partners are inevitable at some point. After it withdrew support to the Hemant Soren-led government, the Congress tried to ally with the RJD and the JD(U). The alliance had all but collapsed before the election began. The task for the party is tough indeed. It will need to start from the scratch and rebuild itself as a strong force, at least strong enough to anchor coalitions involving other parties or it has to say goodbye to the states allowing its cadre to move elsewhere. The political space is cramped in the states and there are just too many contenders. Rahul Gandhi or whoever is leading the Congress has a tough job at hand. The party might have strong competition once the splinter groups of the Janata Parivar come together to form a party. The new entity will have a large presence in crucial states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, and in smaller states like Jharkhand which are close to the magnetic field of the Janata groups. If the new party comes about, there could be a new force to challenge the growing dominance of the BJP. If it proves to be strong enough, it might cause the migration of Congress workers to it. With no effort visible from its side to think fresh, the party maybe on its way out in many states.