Congress yet to take call on AAP alliance: Divided Delhi unit, compulsion to revive base behind dilemma

The continuing cross-talk inside the Congress over an alliance with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Delhi suggests that the party is in a state of confusion over the right decision. While an alliance with the AAP would mean according a status of equality to the new party and loss of prestige, no alliance could mean gifting all seven seats to the BJP on a platter.

A pragmatic middle line has been elusive, despite back-channel initiatives from both sides. The situation emanates primarily from the hard position of the Delhi Congress over a tie-up.

So, what exactly worries the party? Here is where the party stands now:

The Delhi Congress is divided into two camps on the issue of alliance: one comprising Ajay Maken, Kapil Sibal and Delhi in-charge PC Chacko; and the other led by Sheila Dikshit. While the former is fine with an alliance, the latter is not.

The Sheila Dikshit camp’s stand follows the calculations for the 2020 Assembly election. It feels without a tie-up now, the chances of the Congress are better in 2020. The party may win 20-25 seats, according to its calculations. The anti-incumbency mood against the AAP would be stronger then.

However, sometime ago, Maken was against any kind of alliance with AAP. “Personally, my view is that Delhi Congress shouldn’t enter into an alliance with AAP. It won’t benefit the party,” Maken had told Firstpost in an informal discussion in January.

He maintained this stand for quite some time. But recently, he changed his stance in favour of a tie-up. The other leaders in Pradesh Congress on his side are Subhash Chopra, Tajdar Babar and Arvinder Singh Lovely.

“Ajay Maken and Kapil Sibal are in favour of alliance as they are keen on contesting from the New Delhi and Chandni Chowk Lok Sabha constituencies respectively. BJP’s cricketer-turned politician Gautam Gambhir is likely to be Maken’s opponent, and an alliance would work in latter’s favour as Gambhir is a stronger candidate with a celebrity tag,” a Delhi Congress source told Firstpost, on condition of anonymity.

Before a tie-up, the Congress has to consider other points too.

AAP of 2019 is not the AAP of 2014/15

In 2014, the Arvind Kejriwal-led party rode high on the message of people-centric alternative politics. Its appeal, built on the anti-corruption movement with Gandhian social activist Anna Hazare as its central figure, spread across classes. The transition from a movement to a political party did not meet with wide approval, but the initial momentum was good enough to provide AAP a 39 percent vote share in the general election and a landslide victory in the 2015 Delhi Assembly election, winning 67 out of 70 Assembly seats. Five years and many controversies later, the momentum has fizzled out.

The AAP gained from large-scale shift of traditional Congress votes in the 2014 Lok Sabha election and the Assembly election a year later. It was particularly true of the Muslim vote bank of the Congress. Muslims constitute around 12 percent of Delhi’s population and the AAP cornered a significant chunk of their votes. The Congress anticipates a shift in the reverse direction in the upcoming election.

When it started out, the AAP had a strong support of the middle class, the poor and the youth. Now, the middle class and the youth appear to have lost interest after many compromises of the party on idealism. It has not helped as most of its intellectual faces have left the party. The AAP can still claim to have some support among the economically-poor section, comprising slums and unorganized colonies, but this section is being wooed by all parties and its choice may be divided.

Initially, Kejriwal wanted an alliance with the Congress in Delhi, Punjab and Haryana. As the Punjab chief minister Amarinder Singh and former Haryana chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda didn’t budge to Kejriwal’s proposal, the party is now emphasising on having an alliance in Delhi.

“On one hand, AAP has been facing severe fund crunch and on the other, it knows well that winning Lok Sabha seats will be an uphill task for it. So, it wants Congress by its side. The Punjab and Haryana Congress apparently rejected Kejriwal’s proposal,” the Congress source said.

The Congress’ compulsion to revive base

The Congress took a massive hit in 2014 and the following Assembly election in terms of vote share, but both were wave elections. The 2014 loss came in the wake of the massive Narendra Modi wave and the other one was a spillover of the same. Five years on, the party expects to reap the benefits of the vigorous ground work done in the intervening period.

Besides this, it cannot allow the AAP to exploit its vote base in seats lost due to seat-sharing. This could result in loyal voters shifting to the AAP permanently or to the BJP.

It also has high-profile candidates, all old war horses, in several seats. They might be reluctant to part with their seats and play second fiddle to newbie AAP. A better option would be to go it alone and try to benefit from the anti-incumbency vote against the BJP and the AAP.

Meanwhile, Sheila Dikshit has strongly opposed AAP’s poll plank of full-statehood for Delhi. If in the bargain, Congress supports AAP, it would face severe problem during Delhi Assembly election in February 2020.

“This is an absurd demand of AAP. There’s no chance of Delhi becoming a state. This demand had been raised several times in the past and discussed in several committees and commissions. Delhi is the headquarters of the federal government. It can only be done through a constitutional amendment and only Parliament can do it with two-thirds majority. Neither the UPA government had it nor does the present NDA have it. So, it’s a fantasy of Kejriwal and his AAP. The Congress won’t accept it, as it’ll be damaging for them,” constitutional expert and political observer SK Sharma told Firstpost.

“The final call will be taken by Congress president (Rahul Gandhi). But, in case this alliance takes place, it’ll cause irreparable damage to the party during the 2020 Delhi Assembly election,” a party source said.

The ball is now in Rahul’s court. Insiders say the chances are 50-50.