Congress will lose more strategic assets to BJP if it doesn't finalise state-wide alliances, mount aggressive response

If the Congress doesn’t finalise state-wide alliances soon and mount a counter attack that is high on realism, confidence and aggression, it’s likely to lose more strategic assets to poaching by the BJP and even runs the risk of being overrun in places where it has gained initial traction. Following five MLAs in Gujarat since January , an MLA and former minister in Telangana, and a shaky opposition leader in Maharashtra, the latest in its list of casualties is an AICC secretary who defected to the BJP camp today. Opposition leaders such as Mamata Banerjee, Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav understood how to take the fight to the BJP camp early and tried to get a head-start, but the Congress has been foolish. It’s still unrealistic, hasn’t been able to overrule its egoistic local leaders in places such as Delhi, and hasn’t been able to think beyond the Prime Ministerial fantasy of Rahul Gandhi. While in Assam it has to gain the lost ground quickly, in Uttar Pradesh it may have to even get out of the way of the Samajwadi Party-Bahujan Samaj Party combine. In simple terms, the ongoing poaching by the BJP presents the Congress in a weak light. It exposes the insecurities and weaknesses of the opposition and if it’s unable to halt the trend, the erosion might cost it dearly because what’s happening is as strategic as corporate takeovers. The acquisition of valuable assets that can be leveraged means assertion of dominance, control of the market and even gaining an unsavoury monopoly. The BJP is a winner on that front. [caption id=“attachment_4192823” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Representational image. Reuters[/caption] Defection of political leaders hasn’t been alien to Indian politics, but poaching or take-over so blatantly as a poll-strategy that could even change the political landscape of states is more or less recent. Buying out the Opposition, mainly through the leaders with decisive political capital, is an easy way to quickly usurp power and subsequently wipe out the remnants of resistance. Tripura, where the CPM lost out and the Congress was decimated even as the BJP rose to power, is a case in point. Although it’s the CPM that lost the battle, it was the defection of the Congress’s leader-cadre infrastructure that tipped the balance in favour of the BJP. Had the Congress been resilient and shown any character, the fate of Tripura would have been different. In the run up to the 2019 Lok Sabha election, what the country is witnessing is a Tripura kind of situation in which the Congress is losing its assets to the BJP in Gujarat and Maharashtra. In West Bengal, TMC is facing a similar, but less serious, situation. In Gujarat, the Congress has lost five MLAs to the BJP since January, and in Maharashtra speculations are rife that the Opposition Leader himself might follow in his son’s footsteps and defect to the BJP. In Telangana, Sabitha Indra Reddy, Congress MLA and a former minister of Andhra Pradesh, and her son are likely to join the TRS. In Kerala, the BJP claims that many potential turncoats from the Congress are waiting. Other opposition parties too may be at risk. In West Bengal, a sitting MP, Anupam Hazra, who had been expelled by the TMC has joined the BJP and there are indications that the latter is trying to poach more with the help of Mukul Roy, who till recently was a TMC-strongman. Although it’s still a trickle, except in Gujarat, the trend should indeed worry the Congress and the other opposition parties because as in hostile corporate takeovers, it does show who’s in control. If the BJP has been able to get five MLAs in Gujarat and make the opposition leader in Maharashtra vulnerable, it’s likely that the targeted leaders are unsure of their political future. However lucrative the offers were, had they been sure of a win, the leaders would have resisted the temptation. What has happened so far is almost like a “dawn raid” by the BJP and the Congress hasn’t been able to mount a counter move, let alone deploying a “poison pill”. The biggest advantage for the BJP is that it’s in power both in many states and at the Centre, which means it can make vulnerable leaders really weak at the knees using both the carrot and the stick. While it’s hard to buy back the lost assets, the only way for the Congress and the opposition parties to fight back is to up its game without losing any more time and raise the hope of a nationwide win. At present, the biggest vulnerability of their fence-sitters is the prospect of losing. For politicians, it’s hard to survive without resources and power and the Congress has to at least make it appear that the party is going to win and hence will have access to both. Once it instills some confidence, it can even launch counter-poaching attacks the way NCP has done in Maharashtra. It’s the Congress that’s the weakest link in the “Mahagatbandhan” because it lacks a sense of realism. Unfortunately, a non-strategic Congress also means collateral damage to the other opposition parties such as the TMC that are regionally stronger and are more focussed in its fight against the BJP. The Congress still doesn’t realise that it’s now or never. Its vulnerability to poaching is a telltale indicator. It cannot get clearer and starker than this.