Congress-NCP split: Is it the last roll of the dice for Sharad Pawar?

New Delhi: In Maharashtra, it’s split time for political marriages that went sour. None of the partners are crying infidelity at this point, but there are hints of secret affairs. The latest turn of events could result in more fluid, promiscuous post-poll arrangements. Ideology, of course, can go to hell.

Politics does create strange bedfellows, and we may soon find some cases of it in the state.

When the BJP decided to call off its 25-year-old alliance with the Shiv Sena, it was almost clear which way the ruling alliance was headed. Within an hour of the saffron alliance being called off on Thursday evening, the NCP announced its decision to part ways with its 15-year-old ally, the Congress.

“We have supported the Congress through thick and thin and in the current political scenario, it was but normal for us to ask for equal seats,” said Praful Patel, senior NCP leader in Mumbai. “We are also in favour of a secular government coming to power in Maharashtra, but the Congress kept delaying the process of seat sharing. NCP has opted not to wait any longer and move on as the last date for filing nominations is 27 September,” he added.

The Congress and the NCP have been in power for the last 15 years in Maharashtra. In 2009 assembly elections they fought 174 and 114 seats respectively.

But with the 2014 general elections reducing the former to a mere two from 17 seats it had in 2009, the NCP decided not to let them play big brother anymore. The Congress was willing to offer 124, but the deadlock continued. While NCP has been crying itself hoarse that Congress was dilly dallying on seat-sharing, Congress leaders put the blame squarely on the regional outfit.

“They demanded 144 seats and refused to meet us until we offer the same to them,” said Manikrao Thakre, Maharashtra Congress chief. “They were refusing to budge from their demand of 144 seats and CM on a rotational basis,” he added.

Most Congress leaders agreed behind closed doors that the fate of their alliance with Sharad Pawar’s NCP depended on the survival of the BJP-SS marriage.

Once it was clear that BJP was unwilling to let Shiv Sena dictate terms to them in the state, the NCP followed suit. Sources say that Pawar has been in touch with senior BJP leadership over the past week or so.

“If the BJP-SS led Mahayuti had fought this election together, they could have won over 200 seats,” says a senior Congress leader on condition of anonymity. “Such a scenario would reduce Pawar to a non-entity in the state that he has lorded over for the past three decades. He is as much to blame for the breakup of the saffron alliance as he is for the Congress-NCP tie up,” he confided.

The BJP is now eyeing itself as a true national party, especially with its vote share increasing in states like Assam, West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu in the 2014 general elections. With BJP on the ascendance, and a weak Sena leadership after Balasaheb’s demise, this is perhaps BJP’s best chance to forge ahead on its own. Uddhav’s estranged cousin Raj Thackeray has already announced 153 candidates of his party, the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), that would dent the Sena’s vote bank. This will give the NCP a fighting chance on Maratha dominated seats where the Sena would have otherwise had an edge if the alliance had not been broken.

It now appears that Pawar may have played his cards almost to perfection by opting out of an alliance with the Congress. “NCP breaking alliance with us immediately after SS-BJP parted ways-curious coincidence. Maybe, new alliance in the offing tomorrow,” tweeted Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan on Thursday night.

There was immense pressure on the Congress leadership not to give in to NCP’s demands. Local leaders have always complained about NCP supporting independent candidates where tickets were given to Congress under the seat sharing formula to keep their support base intact. “It is unfortunate that NCP has decided to move away from us, but that doesn’t mean we are not prepared to go it alone,” said Rajeev Satav, Congress MP. “This will help us revive the party cadre, especially the youth on the seats which we left for NCP in the previous elections,” he added.

While this decision is being seen as Pawar’s last roll of dice to retain his supremacy in the western state of Maharashtra, if all four major parties along with MNS fight alone, the NCP hopes to make the most of it and hopes to spring a post poll surprise in case of a hung assembly. The Congress on the other hand sees it as a long lost opportunity to regain its footing in a state where it has seemingly lost its grasp. All in all, a marriage that seems to be heading towards a happy divorce.