Congress' gains in MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh set up tantalising Rahul Gandhi vs Narendra Modi battle in 2019

Narendra Modi’s electoral juggernaut has finally halted exactly where it began five years ago — the three Hindi heartland states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Since December 2013, he won one state after another for the BJP, taking the tally of states ruled by the party and its allies to 20. The loss of these three states will hurt the BJP on two levels. First, they have been snatched by the Congress, a party that until the other day was considered down and out. The BJP’s “Congress-mukt Bharat” campaign that resonated until recently will now sound hollow and its leadership will thus have to devise a new catchphrase with which to target the Congress. Second, the “double engine” theory for development as propounded by Modi — same party government at the Centre and in the state — has been rejected collectively by the people of the three states in which the BJP was in power. That too when in each of these states — Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, the BJP had strong regional leadership and a strong organisational presence. It’s also not that the outgoing BJP chief ministers Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Vasundhara Raje and Raman Singh had neglected development. [caption id=“attachment_5549111” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] File image of Congress president Rahul Gandhi. Twitter @INCIndia[/caption] It seems people preferred to give a chance to “cooperative federalism” than the double engine growth theory. Ironically, the cooperative federalism theory too was propounded by Modi after he came to power at the Centre in May 2014. Perhaps there was a fatigue factor. Perhaps people had seen enough of Chouhan and Singh, who had been in power for 13 and 15 years respectively. The BJP was virtually wiped out of power in Chhattisgarh and in Madhya Pradesh, it went down fighting. That’s something for the BJP leadership to ponder: Why are its popular faces no longer attractive in their states? One can argue that Rajasthan voted true to its five-year revolving door tradition and die-hard BJP supporters can take that in stride. The BJP, in any case, was never hopeful about winning Rajasthan. The results of the three Hindi heartland states and those of Telangana and Mizoram throw up two important questions. First, whether Modi’s magic is finally losing its sheen. And second, whether these results mean that Rahul Gandhi has finally come of age as a leader and as a campaigner who will go to 2019 as the prime challenger to Modi and prime contender for the prime ministerial post as the leader of the Mahagathbandhan. A glance at the results would tempt one to believe that Modi’s charishma is diminishing. After all, people of three adjoining states have voted against the party he leads, against three of the strongest regional satraps. But if you have been on the ground in these states and spoken to people of varying strata of society, then the end analysis of these results in terms of Modi magic will not be simple. The voters have become smarter. They distinguish between the state and the Central government — who in their opinion was best to lead the state and who was best suited to lead the nation. This is a a classic split-voting phenomenon. While reporting from the ground in poll-bound states, this writers met numerous people who had decided to vote against BJP, but strongly rooted for Modi as a leader and as prime minister. They believed that Modi should continue to rule the country, seeing him as a man working very hard and sincerely trying to make a difference. Therefore, when the 2019 Lok Sabha elections roll around, they are likely to vote for Modi and the BJP, but in these elections they had a different preference. That explains the crowd at Modi rallies and the response he got from the gathered audience. The results of these elections should also work as wake-up call to BJP leaders and shake them into getting out of complacency mode, to introspect and review their strategy, recharge and regroup for the big bang election, which is only four months away. From the BJP’s perspective, it is the lowest point since Modi began his national campaign in December 2013. From the Congress perspective, it is the party’s high point. It is time to rejoice and cheer for Rahul’s leadership. After all, the party has won handsomely in three states in a straight fight with the BJP and a supposedly invincible Modi-Amit Shah war machine.

It should be noted that a year ago, Rahul had taken over Congress presidency from his mother Sonia Gandhi. He has finally delivered for the Congress. Will he now be considered capable enough to be the leader of the Mahagathbandhan and attract more allies? Will allies recognise his vote-catching ability, after all he now has something for which to claim credit.

But the results of Telangana add a twist. The TRS has swept the polls and returns to power on a triumphant note. The Congress-TDP-Left alliance has been wiped out. This happened just a day after TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu and Rahul jointly addressed the media in New Delhi after a meeting of anti-Modi forces. The Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party boycotted that meeting, but Naidu was one leader who appeared to be very keen to be seen by Rahul’s side, irrespective of the fact that the TDP had originated from an anti-Congress sentiment in undivided Andhra Pradesh. Both the TDP and Congress will now review their alliance for Andhra Pradesh and the Lok Sabha elections, which will be held simultaneously in four-or-so months. The Congress is now in a better position to bargain with its prospective allies. But it is unlikely that regional parties will yield much space to the party and its leader. The Congress will surely root for Rahul’s leadership. That will bring the prospect of a Modi versus Rahul battle next year. The BJP will very much fancy its prospects in that scenario. Follow all the latest updates from the Telangana Elections here Follow all the latest updates from the Mizoram Elections here Follow all the latest updates from the Chhattisgarh Elections here Follow all the latest updates from the Madhya Pradesh Elections here Follow all the latest updates from the Rajasthan Elections here **Follow Firstpost's coverage of the 2018 Vidhan Sabha Elections here**