Cong at disadvantage: Shadow of Muzaffarnagar riots on Delhi poll

The Muzaffarnagar riots may have a strong bearing on the Delhi Assembly elections. It may sound unlikely, but it  could well prove true in a good number of constituencies where Jats are either dominant or can influence the outcome.  And that’s not good news for the Congress in a closely contested poll. [caption id=“attachment_125325” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Muzaffarnagar after the riots. PTI[/caption] In a closely contested triangular election, every single vote and seat  matters and the undercurrents of what happened around 130 km from the national capital have already started making their impact felt among the political class. The unfortunate riots in that region were mostly between Jats and Muslims. The geographical proximity between Delhi and Muzaffarnagar translates into considerable social contact and relations. That’s the reason why this could affect the Delhi election but may not affect Rajasthan. Delhi being a city state, that too a metropolis and India’s capital that broadly reflects national population profile, there is a tendency not to scrutinise voters’ inclination and polling pattern along caste or community lines. Moreover, in these elections there is too much of media attention on how Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Admi Party will perform. But the fact remains that the Jats have largest number of representatives, 14 in the 70-member Delhi Assembly including Yoganand Sahastri as the Speaker. The same is true for the Municipal Corporation of Delhi. The community has 60 Councillors. South Delhi Mayor Sarita Chaudhary, Standing Committee Chairman Rajesh Gehlot and North Delhi Mayor Master Azad Singh are all Jats. The Jats here are followed by seven Brahmins and seven Punjabis. It’s not that that caste and community sentiments don’t work in Delhi. In fact Sheila Dikshit’s advent in Delhi politics in 1998 signified a mix of woman, Brahmin, Punjabi and Poorvanchali (people from eastern region) sentiments, all personified into one. There have been other factors as well but she then became face of the changing demographic profile of the city and their newer aspirations. As per an unofficial electoral estimate, Jats constitute a substantive section of population in various pockets in Outer Delhi, North West Delhi and East Delhi, and can influence the outcome in at least 15 constituencies, though some claim that they could influence 20 constituencies. But in that case Gujjar community will also have to accounted for in same vein. This community was also one of the affected groups in the Muzaffarnagar riots. The BJP has taken Ramvir Singh Bidhuri, a Gujjar leader who wore many political hats, into their fold and has given due importance in the electioneering. Its no secret that after the Muzaffarnagar riots, the Jats of the region have developed a  hostility towards the Samajwadi Party and have also developed an antipathy for the Congress. Community members keep on talking about how Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi and Manmohan Singh chose to ignore Jats and went for photo ops showing compassion to the Muslims during their visit to Muzaffarnagar. Though their visit was more tokenism than any substantive relief, there is still a widespread perception that the top Congress leaders didn’t feel for them. The Congress ally Ajit Singh’s RLD is no longer trusted by them. The BJP has suddenly become their first choice. Narendra Modi’s Hindutva credentials make him a hero among many in the Jat community. The BJP, which is lately gaining ground in Delhi is now working hard to convince the Jat and Gujjar community members that the party could best protect their interests. “Jats have a tribe like mentality and are governed by a well knit network of Khaps, Panchayats, Pals and Pattis. They are guided by a close sense of affinity and belonging through Dudh aur Khoon, Beti aur Roti (by milk and blood, by food chain and marriage). Pain and pleasure is felt commonly and responded. Muzzafarnagar is one instance where pain and anguish is shared commonly by all of us and will find a common response in Delhi polls,” said a former army officer and Jat activist. He claimed that he has been touch with various social and political groups of the community in and outside of Delhi and find that there was a great deal of agitation among community people. Since the Congress led government at the centre did nothing, despite Delhi being so close to Muzaffarnagar, to contain the situation when the community was targeted, a message has to be given through the ballot, they reportedly believe. Anil Dahia, who lives in Rohini and works for a mass communication firm, says he and his family had traditionally been Congress supporters. But this time he was not sure of his vote to the Congress. He says the Muzaffarnagar incident may have a direct impact in some assembly in Outer Delhi constituencies and in some areas, which is closer to UP border. In other constituencies, which are inside but still have Jat influence will be guided more by local factors. Will it not have a counter polarisation among the Muslims? The argument is that the community in any case would have voted for the Congress. Though Arvind Kejriwal and other leaders of Aam Admi Party have made rounds to influential clerics and circulated pamphlets in Muslim localities, the party is unlikely to gain tangible support from this community, till it is perceived to be the clear winner. Of the 364 villages in Delhi, around 225 are dominated by Jat community while in 70 villages, Gujjars have majority. The Yadavs have a majority in 35 villages. Since these communities had land in and around Delhi, the growing needs of urbanisation made them cash rich. Besides being moneyed and rooted to the ground, the fact that the community has been aggressive and numerically strong, interest in politics came naturally to them. Delhi Jat politics since 1990s revolved round two politicians, Sajjan Kumar of Congress and Sahib Singh Verma of BJP. While Verma had been former Delhi chief minister, Kumar has been three time MP and now has his brother elected as MP from South Delhi. Verma died in a tragic road accident a few years ago and Kumar was sidelined after being indicted in the 1984 anti-Sikh riot cases. Sahib Singh Verma’s son Parvesh is fighting an election on BJP ticket from Mehrauli constituency and Sajjan’s son Jagpravesh is fighting as Congress candidate from Sangam Vihar. The shadow of Muzaffarnagar riots is disadvantage Congress in howsoever number of constituencies it may be. Ends