Nitish Kumar's masterstroke move to resign as Chief Minister of Bihar only to comeback and reclaim his seat will impressively work in his favour, as he is about to face the floor test in Bihar Assembly on Friday.
Hours after Nitish broke off JD(U) alliance with RJD and the Congress, and tendered his resignation, the JD(U)chief had BJP backing him to form the new government in Bihar. Governor Keshri Nath Tripathi had then given Nitish two days to prove majority in the Bihar Assembly. However, BJP's support is enough for Nitish's JD(U) to come to power again in Bihar.
Even though the idea of having a new Bihar government has not gone down well, either with the RJD, the Lalu Prasad Yadav family in particular, there is nothing any of them can do about it to, at least in terms of affecting the trust vote.
On Wednesday, Tejashwi had told that being the largest party in the House, RJD would also “seek time from the governor to stake claim to form the government.” However, with the trust vote all set to happen on Friday, it is highly unlikely that the RJD can appeal to the Governor at this point.
The JD(U)-BJP combination has enough numbers in the Bihar Assembly to prove its majority, seven more than required. While, JDU has 71 seats in the Assembly, BJP has 53. Together, the JD(U) and National Democratic Alliance (NDA) have 129 MLAs in the 243-member Bihar Assembly, while the magic figure is of 122.
With RJD's 80 MLAs, even if it tries to form alliance with Congress, which has 27 MLAs, and CPI(ML), which has three, their number would only add up to 110. This is not clearly not enough to form the government.
However, the RJD is rooting for conscience votes after JD(U) MPs Ali Anwar, Sharad Yadav and Veerendra Kumar established their negative reservations over Nitish's move to join ranks with the BJP. There are six Muslim and 11 Yadav MLAs within the JD(U), which the RJD is banking on, though Hindustan Times said that there are reports that these MLAs have submitted letters of support individually to the party.
The Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP), Hindustan Awam Morcha (HAM) and Communist Party of India (Marxist–Leninist) (CPI(ML)) have two, one, and one seats respectively. Although the NDA has 58 members in the Bihar House, the Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP) is not very keen on supporting Nitish.
The four independent MLAs in the state Assembly may or may not favour the coalition which enjoys majority support. However, they cannot affect the result as much as to cost Nitish his dear seat.
Meanwhile, there is also a likelihood of Nitish's support getting a boost in the Assembly. According to sources close to CNN News18, more than half of Congress' MLAs might vote for JD(U) on Friday. If that happens, Friday's floor test could also affect the Congress-RJD relationship, much to the delight of the NDA.
Updated Date: Jul 28, 2017 11:05 AM