Collateral damage or insider plot? Sushma Swaraj's future now shaky due to Lalit Modi controversy

After a furore over backing former IPL chief Lalit Modi, External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj might have found the support she received from rather unlikely sources in her party rather heartening. Swaraj isn’t known to enjoy the best relations with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and party president Amit Shah. But Shah was among the most vociferous in her defence. Shah insisted that she had acted in a “humanitarian” manner and it was a case of an Indian helping an Indian. [caption id=“attachment_2295790” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  PTI image[/caption] “Sushmaji has herself clarified. The matter is clear. Lalit Modi had said his wife is suffering from cancer and sought help. She (Swaraj) said if British rules permit, then he should be helped. There is no need for any uproar. There is no issue of moral grounds,” Shah said, virtually rejecting opposition demands for her resignation. Hitting back at Congress, the BJP chief said this matter was different from helping Bofors scam accused Ottavio Quattrocchi “flee” from India or allowing Union Carbide chief Warren Anderson to “leave” the country. Even the RSS, with whom she’s now known to be the closest, came out in her support. “Sushmaji is full of nationalism and humane nature. Whatever she might have done, would be guided by nationalism and humane nature,” senior functionary Indresh Kumar said, adding that she never compromised on “patriotism and nationalism”. Home Minister Rajnath Singh met with the Prime Minister after which he spelled out what seemed to be the government’s official stance. “We want to make it clear that whatever she has done is right. We justify it and the government completely stands by her,” Singh said. BJP’s MP Kirti Azad , who was among many who backed Swaraj, however, ruined the rare moment of party bonhomie on Twitter with this tweet even as #IStandWithSushmaSwaraj trended on Twitter on Monday morning:

'#BJPs #AsteenKaSaanp & #Arnab conspire against BJP leaders. Guess the snake? IStandWithSushmaSwaraj @SushmaSwaraj https://t.co/08OsjsqpNC

— Kirti Azad (@KirtiAzaad) June 14, 2015

Cue the conspiracy theories. One theory is that the leak of the UK politician’s emails was enabled by the former IPL chief’s rivals and that other emails could be leaked into the media in the coming days as a lobby in the BCCI against Modi strengthens its case, a Times of India report stated. Another version claims that the leaked emails were intended as an attack on UK Labour Party’s vice chairman Keith Vaz, who quoted Swaraj’s name in an email while pleading Modi’s case. While Vaz maintained that the leaked emails were a criminal act, he said that he had also done nothing out of the ordinary for Lalit Modi, despite allegations of conflict of interest for pushing the case of a person who was not even from his constituency. “In the past year, over 270 people living outside my constituency have contacted me in my then capacity as chair of the home affairs select committee,” Vaz told the Telegraph. According to this theory, Swaraj is just collateral damage in a bid to take down Vaz. The most tantalising is the third interpretation, which may gain further ground in the coming days. According to this one, Swaraj may be the victim of a internal feud in the BJP that has remained unresolved since Narendra Modi became Prime Minister. AAP’s Ashutosh and RJD’s Manoj Jha were among those to hint _ _that Swaraj was taken down by her own, with Ashutosh tweeting, “Question is first @BJPRajnathSingh in son row/now @SushmaSwaraj in Lalit row? Coincidence or game plan to fix opponents of Modi in BJP?” Swaraj’s relations with Prime Minister Narendra Modi have been cordial for all appearances, but they share a bitter history, which includes the ugly run up to the 2014 election. Swaraj had argued against Modi being made the party’s PM candidate at one point and had even sought the suspension of Shah from the party when he was arrested in connection with encounter cases in Gujarat. But despite being put in charge of the External Affairs portfolio, which has been largely been the domain of the PM, Swaraj has done well and perhaps, even excelled at her post in the background, as she has gone about doing her work quietly and efficiently. ““Sushma-ji’s is a case of a remarkable transformation,”,” a BJP leader  told the Economic Times earlier. As _Firstpost_'s Rajeev Sharma had noted after she had completed a year in office: It is a clever political strategy adopted as she has willingly played the second fiddle in India’s foreign policy. Swaraj has deliberately ceded space to PM Modi knowing fully well that India’s foreign policy is being orchestrated and choreographed by the PMO, not her ministry. Swaraj has quietly kept herself backstage and let PM Modi bask in the media arc lights even though she is more pro-active. But her good record so far may only take her so far. Despite the enthusiastic show of support in front of the cameras, BJP sources are already talking to the media about Sushma’s exit. A ccording to a Telegraph report, “BJP sources conceded that with Parliament’s monsoon session and the Bihar elections approaching, the party could not be seen as “compromising on the promises of transparency and probity” Modi had touted during last year’s poll campaign. Politically and ethically, they added, Sushma’s position had become “untenable”. “Modiji will have to choose the time of her exit. He won’t buckle under Opposition pressure but will act when the episode singes him,” a source said.” All this talk of Swaraj’s exit may just be disgruntled gossip from detractors in her party. Whether or not there was an actual conspiracy to take Swaraj down, or this is just a case of sweet serendipity for her enemies, there is no doubt that she is skating on thin ice. An allegation of wrongdoing at such a politically sensitive time can easily become the blow that brings her down. And looking clean is doubly important to a Modi sarkar which touted its clean record in office last month as a rebuttal to its critics on its first year anniversary. Anything that jeopardises the last unsullied ace in the BJP column may easily be seen as indispensable, more so whendebts of personal loyalty are not involved. Politics is all about maintaining appearances. That former IPL chief’s Instagram account with photos of him partying more and less by the bedside of his ill wife  are also doing the rounds isn’t helping Swaraj’s cause. For now, PM Modi has not said a word about the controversy. That silence likely speaks volumes, but it is still unclear as to what is being said.