Chhattisgarh polls: Ajit Jogi's hold on Satnamis poses equal threat for BJP, Congress as ex-CM gears up for final showdown

Contrary to popular belief, Ajit Jogi and Mayawati’s alliance in Chhattisgarh is perhaps hurting the BJP as much as the Congress, if not more. The Satnamis, an influential community with the status of Scheduled Caste, and tribals form the core vote base of the Congress, for around 65 percent of the party’s vote comes from here. Former chief minister Ajit Jogi is extremely popular among the Satnamis, and Mayawati is a prominent Dalit leader in India. It is easy to deduct the two coming together would only eat into the Congress’ vote share. But a deeper look reveals something interesting. There are 10 seats in Chhattisgarh reserved for the Schedule Caste (SC) with great Satnami influence. In 2013, the Congress only managed to win one, while BJP took its tally up from five in 2008 to nine in 2013. Apart from the SC-reserved seats, there are 19 more seats in the general category with substantial Satnami voters. The BJP had bagged at least half of them too, proving critical crossing the halfway mark in a 90-member Assembly, which ended with BJP at 49 and Congress at 39. [caption id=“attachment_2814034” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] File image of Ajit Jogi. AFP[/caption] There is a back story about how the BJP made serious inroads in the Satnami-influenced seats. In 2008, 70-odd people from the Satnami sect were booked for attacking a police team at a fair in Bilaspur’s Bodasara. One of the 70 people was Bal Das, the priest of Satnami samaj. The fair was attacked, for it was organised on a property where the samaj believes its guru was born. Das demanded unconditional release, refusing to apply for bail, which led to the state government negotiating with him. Five years later, Das floated Satnam Sena and put up its candidates in 21 constituencies, only two of which were SC-reserved. Das campaigned vigorously in most of the constituencies, traveling from one place to another in a chopper, which is commonly rumoured to have been provided by the BJP state leadership. Das had, obviously, denied the charge, and had even said his party had nothing to do with BJP’s victory. Even though the Satnam Sena did not win a single seat, it managed to split the Congress vote, which ensured the BJP snuck through. For example, in the constituency of Lormi, which is a general seat in Mungeli district of Bilaspur division, Congress’ Dharmjeet Singh, who had been an MLA from the constituency from 1998, lost to BJP’s Lokesh Sahu by a margin of just over 6,000 votes. Satnam Sena’s Somesh Baba, son of Bal Das, polled more than 16,000 votes. BJP won 10 out of the 21 seats, where Satnam Sena had a candidate. Only two were SC-reserved. Out of the 10 constituencies that were SC-reserved, it is said that the BJP won nine seats largely because Jogi greatly influenced the Satnami vote against the Congress. He quit the Congress in 2015 after his brother Amit was expelled for anti-party activities, and in 2016, he formed his own party, Janata Congress Chhattisgarh. “Even BJP didn’t expect to win as many seats,” said Sunil Kumar, editor of Raipur-based newspaper The Chhattisgarh.

“In 2013, it was common knowledge that Jogi had supported the BJP candidates in SC-reserved seats. He is the most popular human being among Satnamis. He had taken the votes away from the Congress and delivered a victory to Raman Singh,” he adds.

Five years down the line, there are two factors in this equation that go against the BJP. The Satnam Sena has been dissolved and Das is campaigning for the Congress. “BJP is an anti-Satnami party,” said Ashok Sonwani, who had organised a rally for Das in Lormi. “We watched their work closely, and decided it is time for a change. We are now working hard to ensure a Congress victory,” adds Sonwani. Except their campaign is not even half as intense on the ground as opposed to what it was in 2013. Das’ rally in Lormi was lukewarm. It had been organised on the day of a weekly bazaar to attract more crowd. But several people around the mandap had no clue what was going on.

Raju Singh, who had campaigned for Satnam Sena in 2013 and is now campaigning for Congress, said it is one thing to ask votes for your own candidate and another to work for a political party. “Several of our _karyakarta_s in other constituencies are not even campaigning,” he said.

The votes that the Satnam Sena enjoyed in 2013, which helped the BJP, would be divided between Congress and the alliance between Jogi and Mayawati, for the community is displeased with Raman Singh for slashing the reserved quota for Scheduled Castes from 16 percent to 12 percent in 2013. The dedicated pupils of Das would be transferred to Congress, but slightly sceptical ones would prefer Jogi. This brings us to the second factor in the equation. Traveling through the SC-reserved seats, it appears that Jogi would get back the votes he influenced towards the BJP in 2013, and make it difficult for the ruling party to retain their hold there. Jogi’s influence in the plains is as good as zero, and he has to capitalise on the SC seats to establish himself as a strong regional satrap. “Jogi has to prove two points — one to Mayawati and another to Chhattisgarh,” said Sunil Kumar.

“BJP may gain in terms of votes dispersed across Chhattisgarh to some extent. But the party will suffer loss in nine out of 10 SC constituencies that are already in BJP’s pocket, due to Jogi. Not many people are reading it this way. They are oversimplifying Jogi’s impact. These 10 seats will decide Jogi’s future. If he doesn’t gain in SC seats, he will be out of politics. He will do everything he can to win. They are not for sale this time around. There is no way Ajit Jogi will allow BJP to repeat its performance in these constituencies,” he says.

Ruchir Garg, former journalist who joined Congress in October, said the Satnamis used to be a Congress vote bank but over the years BJP have also made their mark in the community. “In a way, it is now split in three parts,” he said. “Also, wherever Jogi has had his presence, he has only worked towards helping the BJP. He dented the Congress more when he was with the Congress,” says Garg. At 72, for a man who has been out of power for 15 years, Jogi’s campaign does not seem to have any roadblocks. He has been traveling from one constituency to another in his helicopter, raising questions over who is funding it. Kumar said there is a huge mining and industrial interest in Chhattisgarh. “These people do not only want the support of the government, but also a piece from the opposition,” he said.

“Those who are conducting mining-related operations pay everyone who could be a future trouble. Jogi could be a kingmaker, or even with three of his MLAs in the Assembly, he could raise issues that can cause trouble for some industry or businessmen. They contribute to political parties based on their fears and expectations,” adds Kumar.

A senior journalist based in Raipur anonymously said it is commonly believed in political circles that the BJP is funding Jogi-Mayawati campaign. “The nature of the alliance is designed to hurt the Congress,” he said, adding, “Which it is to an extent. But it could well backfire in the SC-reserved seats.” Ramnivas Tiwari, a senior leader of the Janata Congress Chhattisgarh, rubbished the claims. “We are contesting against the BJP, and are on our way to form the government by beating them,” he said, adding, “Jogi is a popular leader across the state. He has the support of the people and well wishers in every which way.” Whether the BJP is funding the alliance or not, it certainly hoped to gain from it. However, the situation on the ground would make the ruling party wonder if it misread the alliance and its impact.