Challenge for Nitish: Can he keep the Bihar growth momentum going?

By Manoj Kumar Patna: Winning the vote of confidence was only a formality, the real test of the political survival skills of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar—often compared to the wily Chanakya—has just begun. So far, Nitish had been surviving in the highly competitive politics of Bihar on the support of the BJP, the partner of 17 years he dumped last week on the charge that the party had deviated from the agreed political agenda of the NDA. Now that he has charted out his independent course of action after a gap of about two decades, it will be interesting to watch how he charts out his political moves.[caption id=“attachment_891537” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. PTI[/caption] His government has survived for now with the support of the Congress, the CPI and a few independents, but the question that is haunting every political observer is how long this government would last and, more importantly, what will be the fate of Nitish’s much-flaunted agenda of ‘development’ for which he was voted back to power. At the moment, the JD(U) government has the support of only 126 legislators, just four above the majority mark of 122, and in Bihar’s politics that is highly unsafe territory. Those familiar with the Congress brand of politics know it well that the party would extract its pound of flesh in lieu of support. Also, the support from the party is fraught with political risks given the negative public perception about the UPA government at the Centre, which the Congress leads. Nitish, from now on, would be considered part of the UPA although the JD(U) has not made any official announcement to this effect. The long term consequences for supporting a discredited government, which has lost a number of important allies, would only be negative for Nitish. NDA never looked healthy either, but it does not have to face the anti-incumbency mood. One of the main reasons why the Nitish Kumar government was voted back to power was its focus on development. The ‘Bihar turnaround’ story was indeed spectacular and it won global acclaim for it. This could be achieved because the government had absolute majority in the House and Nitish did not have pressures from legislators for ‘creamy’ ministerial berths in lieu of support. The result was that all the ministers stayed focused on their work and the government faced no threat to its stability. In the present situation, all the independents, others and several ‘heavyweight’ JD(U) leaders who voted in favour of government’s confidence motion have now been demanding key ministerial berths. One of the senior JD(U) leaders has even been adamant on the post of deputy chief minister which earlier was held by Sushil Kumar Modi of the BJP in the previous NDA government. The pulls and pressures are likely to block the government’s progress. It would be too busy managing the numbers and keeping the flock in good humour to continue in office. Also, it will be facing a stronger and fiery resistance with as many as 91 BJP members on the opposition benches. The three departments which anchored the Bihar turnaround story were finance, roads and health were in charge of BJP ministers. While the finance portfolio was held by former deputy chief minister Sushil Kumar Modi, roads was represented by Nand Kishore Yadav, now Leader of Opposition in Bihar assembly. The other important portfolio health was represented by Ashwinin Kumar Choube. Such was the effort by Sushil Modi that Bihar, which once was a basket case, among the BIMARU states of the country, ultimately touched the economic growth rate of 11 percent. Modi not only ensured sound fiscal management, something alien during the 15-year RJD regime, but also brought a lot of tax reforms. He was also the chairman of the committee of finance ministers on GST, a post he quit in the aftermath of the severing of ties with the JD(U). The immediate challenge for the present JD(U) government now is to search for a suitable man to replace Modi to keep things moving. Likewise, more than 15,000 km of roads were built in Bihar and the state had started doing well on the health front. Nitish never missed out on flaunting these achievements in his public speeches. No doubt, the Centre did a lot by liberally granting funds to Bihar, but it was the BJP ministers who actually pulled off a success for the state. Improved infrastructure and prudent fiscal management had earned a very good image for Bihar among the industrialists and they had started exploring opportunities in the state. The new government not only has to keep the positive sentiment going but also has to maintain the tempo of development. Observers say the prevailing situation may also lead to social tension as there will be sharp polarisation of votes along caste lines in the aftermath of the BJP raising the bogey of ‘vishwasghat’ (betrayal). The chief minister claims support of his fellow Kurmi caste, extremely backward caste, Mahadalits and minority whereas the politically powerful Bhumihars, Brahmins, Kayashthas and businessmen community have been the traditional voters of the BJP. The BJP is now reminding the voters how the chief minister stabbed them in the back. The development has obviously not gone down well within the upper caste masses who are dismayed at the role of Nitish and in a angry mood.