Can't say a word: PM Modi's Srinagar rally poses a strange catch-22 for BJP

A few flags the size of chinar trees on the Dal Lake, giant posters extolling the history and future of the Abdullahs on Gupkar Road, a lone hoarding of Modi at Regal Chowk and increased activity at Sajjad Lone’s home on the way to the airport are the only signs that Srinagar is in the midst of a momentous election that has drawn global attention. When Prime Minister Narendra Modi gets up to speak at the Sher-e-Kashmir Stadium, he will have to make what will be the most difficult speech in his political career. Speaking, as he does in his other rallies, as the star campaigner for the BJP party will not suffice in a Srinagar strangely bereft of the election frenzy that would have seized any other state at this juncture. “Election is about bijli, paani and rozgaar. Nobody is saying we are voting against azaadi,” says Sheikh Manzoor, who runs a private college in Gandarbal, a few km from the famous Hazratbal shrine. “Jab dono bhai mil kar baithenge tab problem solve hogi (the problem will be solved only when the two brothers sit together),” he says. [caption id=“attachment_1839273” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  what will Modi say in Kashmir? PTI[/caption] Nobody is spending sleepless nights wondering who be the next chief minister will be, though people in the Valley seem to already know the answer. The only question on everybody’s mind is this: Kya halaat sudharenge? This then is the big question Modi will have to answer that in Srinagar today. There are, however, no easy answers, especially for a PM who ran on his 56 inch-sized chest. Many in Kashmir believe that Modi struck the right note when he invited Nawaz Sharif to Delhi for his swearing-in ceremony. But the volte-face in the policy towards Pakistan has dampened hopes of peace in the Valley. Modi can’t go back on his hardline stance on Pakistan any time soon. It will not appease his core constituency in India, which fervently believes that their neighbour can be tamed by talking tough. Pakistan has also relentlessly frustrated India’s peace overtures with its support to militants and cross-border firing. Offering an olive branch to Pakistan would be politically damaging for Modi. While he can’t, obviously, promise dialogue with Pakistan, Modi could tout the idea of engaging the Hurriyat leaders, but this too looks difficult because everybody would then question the logic of snubbing Pakistan because its envoy met the same separatists. Political solutions also look unviable. It would be unwise to think that a BJP government in J&K-a difficult but not impossible prospect-will solve the Kashmir conundrum. The BJP evokes a lot of mistrust in the Valley and its leaders have further added to the divide by highlighting its openness to naming somebody from Jammu as chief minister. Jammu and Kashmir is one state but geographically, historically and demographically the two regions are completely different. The Valley would never accept a person from Jammu as the CM. The BJP idea of foisting a non-Muslim from outside the Valley is likely to be disastrous for the state. So, what are Modi’s options in Srinagar? His party is waiting for a major announcement today. But Modi’s options are limited. He can’t sing peace; he can’t enrage the people further with his tough talk. He can’t promise the CM’s chair to a Kashmiri and pour cold water on the expectations of voters in Jammu who are eager to see one of them rule the state. There is speculation that Modi might embrace ‘former separatist’ leader Sajjad Lone and give subtle hints of his Kashmir policy. But this romance between a nationalist party and a separatist would have to be conducted more in private than in public for fear of a political backlash south of Banihal Pass. On Kashmir, Modi has pushed himself into a tight corner. He will require more than just rhetoric to come out of it.