Bypoll defeat: Five home truths for Nitish

By Manoj Kumar Patna: A lot was at stake for Nitish Kumar in the by-election to the Maharajganj Lok Sabha seat. But above everything else it was pride. The defeat of JD(U) candidate Prashant Kumar Shahi, a candidate hand-picked by the Bihar chief minister, has delivered a massive blow to Nitish’s ego. He had made the victory of Shahi, the state’s education minister, an issue of prestige. Had things gone right, all his recent aggressive political moves – going it alone without the support of ally BJP; the vociferous opposition to Narendra Modi; the new social engineering formula among others - would have stood vindicated. Now, he will need to re-think his moves. His popularity is on the wane and it does not augur well for the parliamentary elections. Worse for him, while he is locked in a bitter fight with the BJP, the Lalu Prasad-led Rashtriya Janata Dal looks to be on the revival path. RJD candidate Prabhunath Singh won the election with a massive margin. [caption id=“attachment_845421” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Image courtesy PIB[/caption] There are several messages for Nitish Kumar in the defeat. First, voters are no more prepared to buy his development and good governance claims. All through his intensive campaign, Nitish had reminded the masses about the ‘lawlessness’ during the RJD rule and contrasted it with his own achievements on the law and order front. He held several election rallies, appealing to the masses to carry forward his development agenda. Ultimately, the voters responded to the RJD’s call for `change’. Obviously, either development has not reached people, or there’s just too much talk about it. Second, the poll outcome indicates that the JD(U) does not matter much in Bihar without the BJP. The JD(U) candidate himself blamed the BJP for not “fully cooperating” with him in the election. The local BJP leaders did not work for the JD(U) nominee and virtually stayed away from campaigning over the bitterness between the parties over Narendra Modi. Not long ago, Nitish had threatened to walk out of the NDA if Modi was made the coalition’s prime minister candidate and has been persistently aggressive on the issue. The results show that BJP’s upper caste’s votes did not go to the JD(U), sealing its candidate’s fate. Third, the mandate seems to indicate that Lalu Prasad’s RJD is on a comeback trail, slowly and steadily. Prasad had left a hint of this when huge number of people attended his 15 May Parivartan rally at the Gandhi Maidan in Patna. What was significant was that the crowd looked disciplined and remained seated under the burning sun all through the rally listening patiently to the speakers instead of going on a sight-seeing tour of the state capital. There has been strong disenchantment among the common masses over the Bihar government’s failure to tame the bureaucracy as well as corruption. All the RJD chief did during the course of his state-wide Parivartan yatra was to channelize the people’s anger towards Nitish. He has succeeded. Fourth, the social engineering formula of Nitish is going nowhere. Since coming to power, Nitish had tried to create a separate constituency for himself by giving 50 percent reservation to women in panchayat elections and cooperative bodies. Thirty-five percent of the seats were reserved for women in the police too. In addition to that, he created a Mahadalit category out of existing dalit category and also formed `Ati-pichhada’ (extremely backward) class out of the backward community with the hope that they will back him always. In a sense, the social engineering was on test this time, and it failed, badly. The upper caste Rajput voters went solidly with the RJD despite Nitish’s bid to cause a division in his votes. Fifth, Modi remains a key issue in Bihar. Even as the JD(U) has gone on opposing the Gujarat chief minister, his popularity has been on the rise. It is said Modi has a considerable following among the masses across all sections of the society and Nitish’s rant against him only boomeranged on him. Many feel the latter is just talking too much and has a personal self-interest involved. Nitish will need to go back to the drawing board and work out a strategy all over again.