BJP's rise sends NCP, BSP, CPI packing: will CPI(M) be next?

Even as the BJP and the Congress party spar over whether the latter will be entitled to the position of leader of the opposition (LoP) despite failing to win 10 percent of the seats in the Lok Sabha, the second consequence of the Modi wave of 2014 is the shrinking of national parties to regional status. Before 16 May, we had six “national” parties: Congress, BJP, CPI(M), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Communist Party of India (CPI). The sharp rise in the BJP’s seats and votes is about to send three of them packing - with the last three failing to qualify on the Election Commission’s criteria for recognising a party as national with the right to use its election symbol anywhere in India. [caption id=“attachment_1598187” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Representational image. AFP[/caption] According to this report in The Economic Times , a national party must fulfill one of these three conditions to be called one: it must either win six percent of the vote in each of four states, or win two percent of Lok Sabha seats (minimum 11 seats) from at least three different states, or be recognised as a state party in at least four states. On the first criterion – 6 percent of the vote in four states – none of the three qualified. The highest total vote was polled by the BSP, with 4.1 percent of the national vote and above six percent only in Uttar Pradesh. On the two percent of Lok Sabha seats metric, the highest total was by the NCP – which won four in Maharashtra, and one each in Bihar and Lakshadweep. But this was less than 2 percent of the total Lok Sabha seats. The BSP got no seat anywhere. The CPI got one in Kerala. Clearly, by a strict application of the Election Commission’s rules, all three – NCP, BSP and CPI – stand to lose their national status. They are mere state parties. But given its state of decline in West Bengal, its former stronghold, one won’t be surprised if the CPI(M) is next on the list of national extinction. The CPI(M) will surely get above 6 percent of the vote in three states – West Bengal, Tripura and Kerala – but the fourth state is doubtful. Even this year, it got just 3.2 percent of the vote, even lower than the BSP’s 4.1 percent (but zero seats) performance. As for meeting the two percent of Lok Sabha seats norm, even this year it got all of nine seats – less than the minimum 11. The only criterion on which it may qualify as a national party is that it could be recognised as a state party in four states. But if current trends are any indication, unless the party reinvents itself, it stands to lose vote share in both West Bengal and Kerala, where the BJP appears to be gaining ground. In West Bengal, the BJP was just 7 percent behind the CPI(M) and in Kerala it was just under half the CPI(M) vote base of 21.6 percent. The BJP is emerging as the third force in both these states, especially West Bengal. So one should not be surprised if, in the next general elections, there are only two surviving national parties – BJP and Congress. Of course, the Election Commission may still not derecognise the NCP, BSP and CPI as national parties this time – but that is another issue. Logically, there can be a difference between calling a party national and defreezing its symbol in states where it has not met the minimum vote share norm. There is no reason why these parties should not retain their symbols even after losing their national party status. That could be the Election Commission’s discretion. The NCP, for example, does not think it will lose its national status. As far as the present Lok Sabha is concerned, the more important question is the absence of a formal leader of the opposition (LoP), with the Congress failing to win 55 seats – the minimum required for claiming LoP status. As things stand, neither the Speaker nor the BJP seems keen to dilute the criterion for giving Congress, with just 44 seats, this status, but the problem is that many constitutional appointments need the Prime Minister and the LoP to be part of the selection process (Lokpal, CVC, CIC, NHRC, etc). Will the Speaker bend the rules to enable this? Speaking to The Economic Times, Speaker Sumitra Mahajan seemed to say no. She said: “There is no opposition party which has the numbers to stake claim to the post. In fact, the appointment of LoP is not just a matter of convention or courtesy; rather a matter of the rules of the House; which are clear that for a party to stake claim to be LoP they need to have 55 seats.” Subhash Kashyap, a former Secretary General of the Lok Sabha, suggested in The Times of India the other day that the Congress cannot claim LoP status just because the LoP has a role to play in some sensitive appointments. He wrote: “So far as the important role of LoP in the appointment of NHRC, CVC, CIC, Lokpal etc is concerned, it is for the government to bring in necessary amendments.” The Modi wave of 2014 has created a constitutional vacuum in some areas, and cleared the field of so-called national parties.