BJP's game plan for Haryana: It's not just Hooda who is in trouble

Haryana chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda has reason to feel upset. He is also well within his rights to announce that he will not again share the dais with Narendra Modi at an official function. But it is unlikely he will be faced with such a dilemma any time soon. [caption id=“attachment_1673543” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Reuters[/caption] The Election Commission is slated to announce the poll schedule for Haryana next week or soon after. After the announcement of poll schedule and model code of conduct coming in force, Modi will be in Haryana not to share a stage with Hooda, but campaigning to ensure his defeat. And being booed by the crowd on his home turf may soon become of a worse fate in store. In 2009 parliamentary results, the Congress won nine out of ten parliamentary seats, but 5 years later, in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, it won just one seat. The exodus of several senior Congress leaders, MLAs and former ministers to the BJP is an indicator of the morale in the party. Prominent Jat leader Chaudhary Birendra Singh’s exit from the Congress and joining the BJP has upped the confidence level of the BJP. The BJP won seven out of eight seats it contested in Haryana in the LS elections. Of the seven, 3 candidates – Rao Inderjit Singh (Gurgaon), Ramesh Chander Kaushik (Sonepat) and Dharambir Bhaleram (Bhiwani-Mahendragarh) – had crossed over from Congress. Though there have been instances when voters preference have been varied in parliamentary and assembly elections but the BJP believes that Modi wave continues to sweep in the state and was duly manifested by the booing crowds in Kaithal. On its own, the BJP has never in the past been a force to reckon with in Haryana. But the polling pattern in parliamentary election has boosted its prospects with BJP president Amit Shah telling his workers to aim for a two-third majority. In less than a week’s time, Shah has made two trips to Haryana. Haryana BJP leader Captain Abhimanyu points out that 30 important leaders from Congress and INLD have now joined the BJP – including Chaudhary Birendra Singh who severed his 40 year old relationship with Congress to opt for BJP. BJP’s rising strength leaves its current alliance partner Kuldeep Bishnoi led HJC in a most precarious situation. As alliance partner, Bishnoi was given two seats but lost both of them including his own. In 2012, both parties had agreed that the BJP and HJC will contest 45 seats each and will have rotational CMs for two-and-half years. The BJP is readying itself to junk this formula. HJC should get reduced number of seats, about half than previously agreed. “How can Bishnoi be projected as chief ministerial candidate for whatever period when he could not manage even his own seat. Either he reconciles to the changed ground realities and agrees to the changed terms and conditions, or should be prepared to see the BJP fighting elections on its own”, Abhimanyu said. The BJP has only four MLAs in the outgoing assembly but its vote share in parliamentary polls jumped to a whopping 34 percent from a lowly 17 percent in 2009. The INLD won two Lok Sabha seats and secured 24 per cent vote share. The Congress, which managed to win only one seat with 23 per cent vote share. The BJP registered a lead in as many as 53 of the 90 Assembly segments in the parliamentary elections. Though the BJP has kept door open for Bishnoi’s HJC, it is not giving him much elbow room to negotiate. Much is also being read in Bishnoi not been invited for Modi’s programme in Kaithal but the BJP maintains that it was an official state function, where those occupying official positions including elected representatives were invited. But all signs are that Kaithal was a warning sign not just for BJP’s rivals but also its allies.