BJP's dilemma: Is Modi its best bet or highest risk?

The latest “ Mood of the Nation” survey by AC Nielsen has thrown up interesting results. Gujarat CM Narendra Modi was by far the most popular leader to be the next Prime Minister. His rating of 36 percent was higher than the combined ratings of Rahul Gandhi (21), Sonia Gandhi (5) and Manmohan Singh (4). In a presidential style poll choice, Modi was favoured by 56 percent of respondents as compared to 41 percent for Rahul Gandhi. The survey, done in partnership with two news channels, was aired yesterday. However, within the BJP, the survey throws up a new challenge: will the party now start acknowledging what the polls are telling it and give Modi a more elevated role? Despite the misgivings of some senior leaders, can the BJP ignore this kind of popular mood and not announce its prime ministerial candidate ahead of the next parliamentary elections? Should it not give Modi at least a symbolic position that would suggest he was the BJP’s face in 2014? [caption id=“attachment_602548” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Narendra Modi. Agencies.[/caption] survey grabbed eyeballs because it has been the first to gauge the national mood after Modi’s victory in December. Even though it was conducted before Rahul Gandhi’s official elevation as No 2 in the Congress party and the accidental elevation of Rajnath Singh to the BJP’s presidentship, the Rahul versus Modi issue was in any case being debated in the public domain. Rajnath Singh’s return as BJP President has evoked a great deal of interest both among Modi baiters and Modi supporters. Will the emergence of a leader as strong as Rajnath, a former UP chief minister and two-time party president, make it difficult for Modi to shift to Delhi? “I called up Shri Rajnath Singhji and congratulated him. He brings with him vast experience of both organisation and administration. Rajnath Singhji served as agriculture minister in Atalji’s government. He has always been associated with farmers. BJP will gain from this,” Modi said in two tweets on the day Singh was “elected” as party president. The underlying message was Singh had his goodwill. The stress on Singh’s son-of-the-soil image is also open to varied interpretation. Party patriarch LK Advani also referred to this point. Given Modi’s strong attraction for urban youth and the middle class, the two could make for an interesting combination if they decide to work together - Modi as PM and Rajnath as party chief and organisational boss. Singh had played that precise role when Advani was the party’s PM candidate in 2009. Inside the BJP, it has always been clear that Modi was not keen on the party president’s job. And he was certainly not keen to leave Gujarat at this stage. But there is little doubt he would like to be the face of the party and its leader in the 2014 parliamentary polls. Modi’s supporters believe his popularity rating can only go up as the elections approach. But in the face of Bihar Chief Minister and NDA ally Nitish Kumar’s threat to walk out of the alliance if Modi is projected as PM-in-waiting, can the BJP and RSS take the risk of naming Modi? Former BJP President Nitin Gadkari had earlier said that the PM candidate would only be from those who contested the Lok Sabha polls. That assertion could die a quiet death with his exit from office. Also politics is a dynamic business where a year is too long a time. But history is on Modi’s side. The BJP has always projected a leader as PM candidate. It has also fought both national and state elections in a presidential style. Second, there is no example in recent times where a popular leader has not been the face of the campaign. Can the BJP ignore the “wishes of the people”, asks Modi supporter GVL Narasimha Rao? But there is a catch. It is one thing for polls to indicate Modi’s popularity and his ability to fetch votes everywhere. In the Nielsen poll, Modi and the BJP may manage to get a good number of respondents backing them even in states like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, the Telangana region of Andhra, Hyderabad or West Bengal, but the party has no organisation worth the name to tap into his popularity. It may not have winnable candidates in these states. There is, however, a counter to that argument in the example of Vishwanath Pratap Singh, who was Rajiv Gandhi’s finance minister and later turned his critic over the issue of Bofors payoffs. He rode to power on a popular wave virtually without any organisational presence. It was only his name that enthused voters in different parts of the country. He became PM with the outside support of both the BJP and the Left. It didn’t last. A key factor that will impact Modi’s projection is the sentiment of the BJP’s rank and file. For them, Modi is the leader, whether or not this is announced formally. The kind of enthusiastic reception Modi got on his first visit to the party headquarters in Delhi last month after the Gujarat poll showed his connect with the grassroots. The Nielsen survey will raise the decibel level on pro-Modi chants emanating from the bottom.