As BJP weighs its options in Delhi, polls seem most likely in Feb 2015

The Supreme Court may have slammed the Centre for not taking a clear position on the status of Delhi assembly, now in suspended animation since February 2014 when Arvind Kejriwal resigned as Chief Minister, but the BJP remains unperturbed. The matter will come up for hearing again on Thursday, but a political or administrative decision on the subject is unlikely to come by then. [caption id=“attachment_1776957” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Representational image. AFP[/caption] It is the BJP, which rules the Centre and is the single largest party in the Delhi assembly, that has to take a call on whether to dissolve the assembly or try and form a  government. But the party leadership is undecided on the matter, and has shown no sense of urgency over it. A senior Delhi BJP leader told Firstpost that “at this point of time we are keeping our options open to see if we are in a position to form the government or seek a dissolution of the assembly. Let’s us see what happens in the apex court and outside of it in the political arena.” But the Union Urban Development and Parliamentary Affairs Minister, M Venkaiah Naidu, said the BJP was fully prepared to face elections. Even as hearings are on in the Supreme Court on the Aam Aadmi Party’s petition seeking a dissolution of the assembly, two developments have taken place. These have been duly brought to the notice of the court. One is that the President has given a go-ahead to the Lt Governor Najeeb Jung’s proposal to invite the BJP, as the single largest party, to form the government. Secondly, the Election Commission has announced by-polls on 25 November in three Delhi assembly seats — Krishna Nagar, Mehrauli and Tughlaqabad. These three seats were vacated by BJP leaders Dr Harsh Vardhan, Parvesh Verma and Ramesh Bidhuri after they were elected to the Lok Sabha. But if the centre and the Lt Governor finally decide to dissolve the the assembly and hold fresh elections, the Election Commission will withdraw its notification for the by-polls. Election Commissioner HS Brahma has already clarified this issue. BJP sources said the party leadership was weighing two options — the moral option of declining the LG’s invitation to form a government, as it had done in October last year, or to accept the invitation and somehow mange the numbers to get a vote of confidence. The BJP Delhi unit president Santish Upadhyay, who had earlier publicly spelt out his preference to form a government, has now chosen to go silent on the issue. “We will speak on the issue only at the appropriate time.” Some senior party leaders, including union ministers whom Firstpost spoke to, were of the opinion that the best course for the party was go in for the fresh elections in February. The BJP excellent performance in Haryana and Maharashtra has proved that the Modi wave continues to blow strong and will impact Delhi as well. The November-December polls in Jharkhand and Jammu & Kashmir are expected to give the BJP a further boost. The Election Commission is in the process of revising electoral rolls in Delhi and the same has to be completed by 5 January. The current spell of President Rule in Delhi will end on 24 February. An election can take place between these two dates should the BJP and the Centre decide that way. There is, however, a section of party leaders which argues that the BJP should opt for elections only after it fails to muster the support of the required number of MLAs in the assembly. Most MLAs don’t want elections, but after the recent “sting fiasco”, which seemed to suggest that the BJP was trying to lure AAP’s members, not many in the BJP are willing to negotiate with potential defectors. A senior BJP leader claimed that a number of MLAs from rival parties have assured them of support either by abstaining or through some other means, but the problem is the party cannot trust such oral assurances. Meanwhile, with the President giving his approval, the Lt Governor will, in all likelihood, make one last attempt to see if a government can be formed in Delhi and invite the BJP to try its hand. This could happen tomorrow (29 October) or some days after that. If the BJP declines the offer, then the Lt Governor can recommend dissolution. Technically, an assembly is placed under suspended animation to basically explore the possibility of government formation before dissolution is recommended. The BJP’s problem is that it does not have an acceptable head to lead any potential government. Even if a leader can be found, it’s longevity will be in doubt, given the numbers (the BJP and Akali Dal have 29, against 27 with AAP) in a 70-member assembly (with three resignations). Moreover, the BJP may not relish the prospect of a minority government having to face Arvind Kejriwal as opposition leader.  If the government falls, the BJP will also have to head for the elections with a failed leader. The Supreme Court bench today (28 October) made some tough observations against the centre: “In a democracy, President’s Rule can’t go on forever. LG should have taken a decision on government formation at the earliest and should not have taken five months’ time. We have given you enough time and nothing much has happened so far,” the bench said, and wondered if the “the ruling party (BJP) has the numbers to form a government.” Senior Advocate Aman Sinha, who is arguing on behalf of the BJP in the Supreme Court, said the petition seeking a dissolution of the assembly did not have “maintainability” as this was a purely political question. President’s Rule has been duly ratified by Parliament and the court could not get into the political arena. At this stage it was non-justiciable for the court. While the poll process has started in Jharkhand and Jammu & Kashmir, it is Delhi which is making news and will continue to do so for next few days.