BJP-Sena seat-sharing woes: Can Modi magic cover up leadership vacuum?

Seat sharing talks between the BJP and Shiv Sena, the oldest and longest serving alliance partners in contemporary Indian political history, should have been a comfortable affair. Even though ground situations have been altered a bit and the terms of a 25-year-old agreement were to be accordingly revised, the negotiations should have been discreet and settled in time. Uddhav Thackeray making the deliberations on seat sharing public at a press conference is indicative of how much the trust deficit between the Shiv Sena and the BJP has widened. More so because this comes from the Sena chief who also set the lowest denominator (150 seats ) for his own party. The Sena did not agree to what the BJP has been asking — 135 seats each for both the parties and the rest (18 seats) for three other smaller allies. The issue of a chief ministerial candidate — another bone of contention — is right now on the back burner, but may blow up later if the combine wins the elections. BJP leaders haven’t made things better for its ally by making statements that the Sena may find provocative. Meanwhile, in Haryana the BJP has severed its three-year-old electoral alliance with Kuldeep Bishnoi’s Haryana Janhit Congress and will be contesting alone. Bishnoi had accused the BJP of being “a serial betrayer”, which allegedly “tried to strangle” him at every stage. In the last two elections that the BJP fought on its own 2004 and 2009, it could win only two and four seats, respectively. But the fact that the party won seven out eight seats in the Lok Sabha elections not only reflects the change in political realities but also the new grounds swell in favour of it. [caption id=“attachment_1713773” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray. PTI[/caption] Considering that the Assembly elections in Haryana and Maharastra, the first since the Lok Sabha elections, are a direct contest between the BJP and the Congress, both parties should by now have hit the ground running. The Congress is down and expected to do badly, unless the BJP messes it up completely. After all, the Congress faces 15 years of anti-incumbency in Maharastra and 10 in Haryana. If the Congress looses these two states, in-house clamour against Rahul Gandhi’s leadership is bound to increase. Conversely, if the BJP is not able to win both these states it would put a question mark on Modi’s popularity and Amit Shah’s ability to lead. The stakes for both the parties are high. These elections assume further significance, even as local factors and local leadership play major role, for the BJP because it will reflect people’s judgement of the Modi government at the Centre. Political rivals have already begun finding fault with Modi’s governance. Besides this, the BJP does not have a chief ministerial candidate neither for these elections, nor for the two other assembly elections that will follow in Jharkhand and Jammu & Kashmir. The party has made Modi’s persona the focal point, as it did during the Lok Sabha polls. While addressing a party workers meeting in Jharkhand, BJP president Amit Shah is reported to have said, “Don’t think about who will be the chief minister, the assembly elections will be contested under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP’s developmental plans for Jharkhand.” In an interview to The Economic Times, Shah had said, “in all three states we have decided not to announce CM candidates… It is not necessary that we announce CM candidates in all three states." BJP leaders believe that the impact Modi had made on popular psyche during the Lok Sabha polls still continues to hold its sway and that would overcome the leadership crisis the party faces in these states. But then the root cause for the hiccups in seat sharing with Sena lies in the lack of leadership in the Maharashtra. The principal architects of Shiv Sena-BJP alliance Bal Thackeray and Pramod Mahajan are dead. The two BJP stalwarts who valued that alliance in letter and spirit, Atal Bihari Vajpayee and LK Advani are out of action. Uddhav Thackeray holds Sena reigns. He has to hold on to his ground to show his party supporters that he is not weak and has the capacity to carry on Balasaheb’s famed mantle. BJP’s Gopinath Munde, who played a key role in stitching alliance with four other smaller parties, Swabhimani Sanghatana, RPI Athawale group, Shivsangram party, Rashtriya Samaj Paksh, is unfortunately dead. He was supposed to be BJP’s chief ministerial candidate. The other senior BJP leader from Maharastra, Nitin Gadkari, has so far been keeping away from the negotiations with Sena. His personal equation with Uddhav is not cordial. He is known to be closer to Raj Thackeray. But his absence from the scene, particularly when the alliance has hit roadblocks is intriguing. Amit Shah has denied rumours of rift between Gadkari and Devendra Fadvanavis, the state BJP chief. The two leaders are said to have met recently to sort out the differences, but camaraderie between them is still said to be lacking. Other states leaders, Eknath Khadse and Vinod Tavade don’t have either the stature or the mandate to negotiate with Uddhav. Incidentally, they all are chief ministerial hopefuls. The BJP had given only one ministerial berth to Shiv Sena, despite it winning 18 seats. The Sena had not taken that kindly but finally agreed to be part of the government hoping that its representation in the union cabinet would increase when Modi expands it. That expansion is long overdue but all speculations around that have dissipated. The BJP has three (initially four) Cabinet ministers from Maharastra. The time for sealing the seat sharing agreement is fast running out. The last date for filing nominations is 27 September. Given the tough positioning that the BJP and the Sena have so far made, friendly fights in some constituencies are not ruled out. For now all eyes would be on 17 September when Amit Shah is expected to visit Mumbai.